Let's call it the 1992 problem. In 1992, George H.W. Bush was running for reelection. The economy stunk, and that's why he lost, right? The informal campaign slogan for the Clinton campaign was, "it's the economy, stupid." Um, here's GDP growth during the Bush the Elder Presidency (source: Federal Reserve Economic Data).
See that shaded region? That's the 1990-1 recession. It was over in 1992 when the election was held. But, people didn't know it. There is always a lag period before people start to notice changes in economic conditions. Changes that occur too close to an election, then, won't register.
The 1992 example was an extreme case. Usually, we go with around a six-month lag in empirical models, but the Bush recession ended more than 6 months before his reelection (or rather, failed reelection bid). There is no hard rule. However, we are two months from the election. There is no time for recent trends to register. The economic report suggests that some of the trends go back a bit, but nothing big goes that far back. Sorry, Hillary, hope that cough gets better....
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