To recap, Mitch McConnell announced that he wouldn't use the nuclear option to eliminate all filibusters at the very beginning of this session, thereby limiting the GOP's options on healthcare to budget reconciliation, because budget reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered. However, such bills are restricted by the Byrd rule, named in reference to long-time Democratic Senator from West Virginia and cross-burning enthusiast Robert Byrd. The rule prohibits budget reconciliation bills from addressing non-budgetary matters. Taxing and spending only. Otherwise, the filibuster just ceases to exist because you can do anything through budget reconciliation. Who decides what counts as a budgetary matter, given that everything at least indirectly affects the budget? The appointed bureaucrat known as the Senate parliamentarian, who issues rulings based on boring stuff like Senate rules. Why? 'Cuz it's a fuckin' rule.
McConnell's proposal fell apart before Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate parliamentarian, called bullshit on his bullshit (or, in my earlier terms, "performed unspeakable acts on the corpse of the GOP healthcare bill"), but now, imagine this. Suppose that we get to Monday morning, on September 25, with one working week to go before reconciliation authority expires, and MacDonough decides that her appetite for bloodshed has been sated. What then?
Right now, Collins is a clear no. Murkowski? Probably no, even though Graham and Cassidy are trying to buy her off with exemptions for Alaska. Why am I skeptical of their efforts? In 2010, Reid bought off Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu to vote for Obamacare with "the Cornhusker kickback" and the "Louisiana purchase"-- special pots of money for Nebraska and Louisiana, respectively. Those pots of money were immediately taken away when the House had to pass the Senate's bill unamended, and then a follow-up budget reconciliation bill stripped those provisions without Nelson or Landrieu's votes (moving from a regular bill to a reconciliation bill dropped the threshold from 60 to 51 votes). Anything offered to Murkowski for her vote for Graham-Cassidy is intrinsically unstable. I doubt Murkowski is stupid enough to fall for this shit. Then again, maybe I'm wrong, but come on, Lisa, we've seen this before. Still, Murkowski is probably a no.
I've been going on about Rand Paul and his theatrical bullshit. MacDonough rules that Graham-Cassidy is Byrd-kosher (brined?), and does Paul kill it? I... doubt it. McCain? Again? With his little buddy, Lindsey Graham as the author of the bill? We have to factor that in. McCain hates McConnell. His relationship with Lindsey Graham is... more friendly. Who else? Portman, Capito... Yeah, they signed a letter opposing cuts to the Medicaid expansion last time around, but caved completely on that with McConnell's bill, so they cave again, and Heller is fully on board.
We can go through every Senator, and right now, there are plenty facing pressure from governors, but I pose my hypothetical: What if Elizabeth MacDonough issues a ruling that Graham-Cassidy is Byrd-compliant? The pressure on any hold-out will be beyond anything we have ever seen. Ever in legislative history.
On the other hand, if she calls bullshit again, nothing we are seeing now matters anyway.
That's why I keep saying, watch the Senate parliamentarian. Everything else is just a bunch of strutting theatrics that outside observers have no way of interpreting anyway.