A fighter from Deir al-Zor military council which fights under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) holds the council's flag in the village of Abu Fas, Hasaka province, Syria September 9, 2017. REUTERS/Rodi Said
Seth J. Frantzman, National Interest: Will America and Russia Change the Political Dynamics in the Middle East?
There are repercussions tied to America's actions in Syria that will impact the entire Middle East region.
On Tuesday, September 12, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu sat with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. According to Russian embassy social-media posts they discussed joint cooperation against Islamic State. This comes on the heels of the Syrian army reaching the city of Deir ez-Zor on the Euphrates River in eastern Syria and breaking a two-and-a-half-year siege. Russia has played a key role in the Syrian army’s successes, which increasingly means that Russian-backed Syrian forces are coming into contact with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). On September 16th the US-led coalition said a Russian airstrike east of the Euphrates river wounded several members of the SDF. As ISIS declines, its vacuum is filled with groups whose agendas are not the same and, in the case of Washington, whose policy remains unclear in eastern Syria. That is leading to greater Iranian influence across Iraq and Syria, and it leaves U.S. allies in the Gulf, Israel and on the ground in Syria wondering what comes next.
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WNU Editor: For the past two years I have been commenting that all roads in the Middle East now lead to Moscow .... Russia Now Calls The Shots In The Middle East (August 4, 2017). I cannot say the same today .... the dynamics have changed. To put it bluntly .... what was unthinkable only a year ago is now happening on the battlefields in the Middle East .... U.S., Russian generals talk face-to-face on Syria (Reuters). The U.S. and its allies have been on a tear in the Middle East for the 6 months .... not only destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria but also establishing permanent bases in Syria .... Turkish State Media Exposes Secret U.S. Military Bases In Syria Potentially Endangering Troops (July 20, 2017). Will the Trump administration abandon these allies when the war is over .... I doubt it. Defense Secretary Mattis and Chief Staff John Kelly spent years fighting the wars in this part of the world .... they primarily see Iran as the main threat, and they have the ear of the President. These are men who do not cut and run .... they are going to make sure that a U.S. presence will be there for the foreseeable future .... if not beyond. Will Russia provoke a fight over this U.S. presence .... I doubt it. Sentiment is growing in Moscow that after the Islamic State has been defeated, attention should be on finding a peaceful resolution with the the remaining rebel held regions of Syria .... including the Kurdish regions of northern Syria. The Syrian war is a drain on the Russian economy, and while there is still public support for Russia's involvement in Syria, there is zero support to go head-to head against the U.S. on this battlefield. As to what Iran and its allies may want .... that is another story. Bbut as the war tapers down, pressure on Iran and its militias to leave will grow .... and if they do not, they will be seen as the occupying power. Tehran has some big decisions to make in the coming months .... and my prediction is that they are not going to leave even if everyone else wants them to. Once that happens .... things may get messy.
