I get stuff wrong. Like just about everyone going into the 2016 general election, I watched the polls, and since the polls were wrong, I made a wrong prediction. When I do that, I own up to it. I like to figure out what I did wrong so that I can avoid repeating my mistakes because I hate being wrong. What I really like is when I'm right, and everyone else is wrong. That just gives me a warm and special feeling.
After Charlottesville, I did a couple of posts (here and here, for example) explaining that a strain of conventional wisdom was wrong. There was an argument floating around that became disturbingly common: Trump's "many sides" crap, and his unwillingness to condemn the neo-nazis and the klan drew speculation, widely circulated, that that would mark a real turning point for Trump. Supposedly, there was something fundamentally different about Trump's response to Charlottesville that meant the political system would respond differently. You can't not condemn nazis. (Sometimes, though, you can use a double-negative). And yet, he did his usual thing. So, speculation circulated widely that people would finally turn on him.
Of course, I called bullshit. And I was right.
Let's look at two measures. First, public opinion. Gallup's tracking has Trump at 38% right now. Back during those Charlottesville posts, he was at 36%, and the numbers have been basically steady. No difference, as I said. Why? Trump couldn't lose any more support because anybody who supported him before Charlottesville was a hardcore Trumpist anyway, and would never leave him, short of a major economic or foreign policy disaster, which hasn't happened, and the numbers can't really go much higher because... he's fuckin' Trump.
I also wrote about congressional Republicans and other elites. Is anyone more sour on Trump now than back in August? The only one for whom you could even make a case is Corker, and Corker wasn't happy with Trump over Charlottesville. That was when Corker pointed out the fact that Trump is unstable and incompetent, about which I wrote here. In that post, I asked, "so, Bobby, what are you going to do about it? My guess? Nothing." What Corker is doing is talking and quitting. Talk is cheap.
Anyway, though, I pointed out during the Charlottesville mess that none of it would stick to Trump. And it didn't. Why not? Because all of the damage that can be done to Trump has been done to Trump.
Trump is as unpopular as he can get, short of an economic collapse, foreign policy disaster, or his own party turning on him en masse, and that last thing ain't gonna happen, never, no way, no how. Mark Meadows pointed out that Corker is emboldened by the fact that he is retiring. Yup. The rest of them are pathetic chickenshits who won't speak the truth, which is that Trump is, as Corker said, unstable and incompetent, or as Tillerson said privately, a fucking moron. If the party doesn't turn on him en masse, then short of an economic collapse or major foreign policy disaster, then, Trump's numbers can't get much lower.
Remember, though, that these numbers are still really low. Trump is really unpopular in historical terms. It's just that... nothing that happens matters. And that's the depressing prediction.
Think about the fact that those around Trump have been using private email accounts for official White House business. Did you even know that? Yeah, after all of that bullshit during the 2016 election, they're just... going ahead and doing that. And the political system is shrugging because with Trump, nothing matters.
The obvious explanation is that we are constantly moving on to some new, stupid twitter feud, and that the distraction prevents us from handling important issues, but really, that's not it. The reality show aspect of current politics is just a red herring. The basic, core fact is that if an entire party's leadership refuses to concede a point, then no matter how indefensible their position is (e.g. "Donald Trump is fit to be President"), there will be a minimum level of support within the public for that position, and political journalists and the commentariat will act as though they must take the point with some level of seriousness, even if the point is ludicrous. That's why Trump faced no real backlash for Charlottesville, as I predicted, why he will never face any real backlash for anything, and among the more depressing things I will write.
Bob Corker has said, pointedly, that Trump looks like he is trying to start World War III. The former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO thinks there is at least a 10% chance that Trump will start a nuclear war. Yes, that's nuclear, and that's the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. The President is a "fucking moron" (source: Secretary of State) who lacks the stability or competence to be President (source: Republican Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee). He is also a textbook racist (source: Republican Speaker of the House), and when asked whether or not the President understands healthcare policy, the Republican Majority Leader of the Senate struggled to restrain a laugh.
And yet, there will be no consequences for anything Trump says or does because his own party will shield him from any consequences out of fear that if they don't, the result will be a replay of the 1974 and 1976 elections.
And I haven't even mentioned Russia. But Mueller's investigation, regardless of findings, won't lead to impeachment or prosecution.