For today, I'll focus on some interesting comments by my Governor, John Kasich, on whether or not he might leave the GOP if he doesn't see the party as fixable. Once again, for your own intellectual and psychological health, don't watch those Sunday morning talk shows. If something important is said, you'll find out later. John Kasich-- a neverTrumper who skipped the convention even though it was in his own state-- said that he might leave the GOP if the party doesn't fix itself.
First... he is unlikely to leave the Republican Party. Party identification is very, very sticky. Why? Great book on the topic: Green, Palmquist & Schickler's Partisan Hearts and Minds. (Full disclosure: Eric Schickler was my dissertation advisor). Party identification is more than just the amalgamation of policy positions. It is a social identity for most people. That... doesn't change easily. It won't change for Kasich.
The politicians who bolt are usually the ones who are just really out of step with their parties on policy, like when the Southern Democrats found themselves at odds with Johnson on civil rights (e.g. Strom Thurmond). That just isn't true for Kasich. He is dispositionally out of step with the mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging, Roy Moore/Donald Trump direction the party has taken, but at the end of the day, he is a socially conservative tax-cutter, and he won't leave the party. He'll be embarrassed as hell, pissed off, isolated, and probably turn into a chain-smoking drunk like John Boehner, but he won't leave the party. Like John Boehner.
This isn't the first time a prominent Republican has made this kind of comment. Remember Bobby Jindal? Remember when he said that the GOP had to "stop being the stupid party?" Did he do anything differently? Did he break from the GOP in any way? Did he join the neverTrumpers? Nope.
OK, so let's address the oddity of this. John Kasich is threatening to leave the GOP during a time of unified government. The Republicans hold the White House, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and effectively the Supreme Court. They control most governorships and state legislatures. In what universe would someone want to leave that party? Well, the universe in which someone realizes that the party at the federal level is failing at everything. The only things the GOP has done with that position so far are appoint Neil Plagiarist-Gorsuch, for which Mitch McConnell deserves sole-credit, and get a few executive orders, which can be reversed by the next Democratic president.
All of their healthcare bluster has been for naught. They have no major legislation so far, and Donald Trump is a national and international embarrassment, currently under federal investigation for a variety of truly insane things, including his campaign's collaboration with the Russians, which has already been established.
Trump's position as head of the GOP, and the legislative dysfunction we currently observe are connected. The party that couldn't stop Trump from getting the nomination is the party that can't govern. Trump is a problem, but he is a symptom of the greater problem, which is Kasich's concern (although he won't really leave the GOP over it).
A functional party would have nominated a functional candidate for president. The 2016 election would have played out differently as a campaign, and the GOP would have won in a more normal way given the Abramowitz "Time for a Change" model. Instead of Comey coming in at the last minute with a bullshit announcement about Clinton's emails on Huma Abedin's computer, a generic Republican candidate would have just beaten Clinton in a dull campaign without anything about pussy-grabbing. Our hypothetical-normal GOP would then propose normal legislation, and pass it through normal means rather than the insane process we observed on healthcare, described accurately by Sen. Chris Murphy as "nuclear-grade bonkers."
On what basis do I assert this? It is what normally happens with unified government. Yes, Trump is there, but his presence shouldn't fuck up everything that happens in Congress too. This is a greater problem. I think I'll do a series on this, although there may be breaks in the series based on the Vegas shooting or other stuff. We'll see.