Now, from a measurement theory perspective, this is clearly at least an "ordinal" measure, meaning that someone fucked to a level of 3 is more fucked than someone only fucked to a degree of 2, just as someone who is fucked at a level of 8 is more fucked than someone whose level of fuckedness is only a 7. There is order to the categories. However, is this an "interval-level" measure? That is my goal. An interval-level measure is one in which the gaps between the categories have equal magnitude. My intent is for the difference in fuckedness between an 8-level fucked person and a 7-level fucked person to be the same as the difference between a 4-level fucked person and a 3-level fucked person. My goal is for the gaps to be the same.
Moreover, I am building in a 0. A true zero. That should, hopefully, make this a "ratio" variable. Someone who has a zero-level of fuckedness is totally unfucked. So, the Buchler-eleven-point fuckedness scale will hopefully be a ratio-level variable assessing political figures' degree of fuckedness. Don't try this at home, kids. I'm a professional.
Why am I doing this? Why not just assess probabilities of impeachment, conviction, etc., like the prediction markets? You'll see.
With that in mind, here's what's going on. Mueller quietly arrested George Papadopoulos, leaned on him to get him to flip on the Trump campaign a month ago, and he's been blabbing. Then, Mueller announced Papadopoulos's cooperation the same day he arrested Manafort and Gates, and he's using Papadopoulos's Henry Hill-turn to get Manafort to flip too because now Manafort knows that people have already flipped on the campaign. Here's what's so fucking cool about this. We don't even know how much Papadopoulos has said, and because that was kept quiet for so long, Manafort has to sweat about whether or not anyone else has already flipped too! This isn't even a real "prisoner's dilemma" because Manafort knows that they've already been ratted out by Papadopoulos. He just doesn't know how much Mueller has, so he has to figure out how much he should say. Mueller is a fucking badass.
With that in mind, I introduce what may be a new and continuing feature. How fucked are they?
Donald Trump: 4
Trump has the ultimate get-out-of-jail-free card. He can pardon himself, and he has the chutzpah to do it. He can fire Mueller, and pardon anyone being pressured with charges... Legally, Trump ain't goin' down. Impeachment won't happen either. The House is in Republican hands, and conviction in the Senate, even if the House passed articles of impeachment, would require a 2/3 supermajority. Ain't gonna happen. The 25th Amendment? Also ain't gonna happen. Keep in mind, also, that whatever illegal shit was going on, that's usually going to happen below the top level to keep the guy at the top insulated. It looks, from Papadopoulos's testimony so far, like there was insulation anyway. If nobody flips on Trump personally, he won't burn for this, and Trump surrounds himself with personal loyalists.
So, why do I put him at a 4? He still has big problems. This is "yugely" embarrassing for him, and that is what is most important to him. His business empire depends entirely on his branding, and this is hurting his brand. The ongoing scandal will hurt the GOP in 2018, and perhaps kill his 2020 chances. He hates losing. I can't put him over the 5-line if there is no chance whatsoever of impeachment or prison time, but given Trump's personal priorities, I'm putting him at a fuckedness of 4.
Paul Manafort: 7
Mueller has Paul Manafort dead to rights. The FBI has had this motherfucker under surveillance for a long time because he is crooked as all fucking hell, and with the evidence against him, if this went to trial, with no intervention, he'd be totally fucked.
So, why not a 10? Donald Trump. If Trump thinks that he needs to pardon Manafort to keep that motherfucker quiet, he'll do it. The question is one of timing. Trials like the one Manafort is facing can get dragged out, and Trump doesn't want to pardon him now. Shady pardons are best-done in lame-duck terms. Trump wants to try to ride this out until after the 2020 election, then pardon anyone necessary right after the 2020 election. So, the goal here would be for Manafort's lawyer to drag this out for a few years with delay after delay, and then get a pardon the day after the 2020 election. That way, he gets away scot-free without having to flip.
Here's the problem. Manafort's lawyers might not be able to delay things that long. He might have to serve some time, and trust that Trump will come through with that pardon, and Trump is the least-trustworthy person on the face of the earth.
And here's the real genius of what Mueller did. He only charged Manafort with actions unrelated to the 2016 campaign, which means that if Trump does issue a pardon, it looks extra-sleazy. If Mueller had charged Manafort with something related to the campaign, Trump could have issued an immediate pardon, whined and lied about "fake news," and called it a day ending in "-y," but the White House has been saying that the arrest has nothing to do with him. So... why pardon him? See the beauty of Mueller's trap? Like I said, Mueller is a fucking badass.
Manafort has to trust Trump, which is always a dubious prospect, and the two were never that close. Clearly over a 5, particularly with what Mueller has on him independently of the 2016 campaign. Trump's craven self-interest keeps him a few points below a 10. I call this a 7, but we'll see how Trump responds going forward. I've been going back and forth between a 7 and an 8. Trump's cravenness pushes me towards a 7.
Michael Flynn: 2
Flynn is clearly next in Mueller's crosshairs. He is not completely out of danger, but he is less fucked than either Trump or Manafort. Why? Simple. Trump will absolutely pardon him. Trump is completely enamored of Flynn. He fired Comey probably at least in part because Comey wouldn't back off of Flynn. If Trump thinks Flynn is in real jeopardy, Trump will pardon him, and he'd probably do it even if it weren't necessary to save his own skin. Moreover, while Trump cares a great deal about his public image, putting him at a fuckedness of 4, Flynn isn't running for office or running a business based on public image, so he has less to worry about than Trump paradoxically. That puts him at a lower level of danger than Trump. Flynn is only half as fucked as Trump (a ratio-level variable!). Once this is done, Flynn will be covered by what is conventionally known as "wingnut welfare." The conservative lecture circuit will pay him $100,000 a pop to rant about whatever batshit crazy conspiracy theories he wants. He just has to ride this out. Yes, there is some danger because the dude broke some serious laws. He was working as an unregistered foreign agent, at the very least. But, if he can ride this out, he'll be fine.
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ): 10
This dude is fucked. This isn't related to Trump. I'm just throwing him in here because, wow, this dude is fucked.