Yesterday, I wrote about the possible Alexander-Murray deal to restore cost-sharing subsidies to the health insurance markets. I wrote about several possible obstacles, including Trump and the House of Representatives. Since then, Trump has backtracked on his initial support, and Ryan has been less than enthusiastic about the deal. How do we interpret these?
With Trump, there is no informational content in anything he says. Remember, Trump is not just a pathological liar. He is also a brainless bullshitter and extemporizing bloviator. Translation: he talks out of his ass without thinking because he doesn't know shit from shinola. What did it mean when he gave initial tentative support for Alexander-Murray? Nothing. What did it mean yesterday when he backed away from Alexander-Murray? Nothing. Trump's words mean nothing because they come from Donald J. Trump. This is the same guy who spent years telling everyone that Obama was born in Kenya, and that he had investigators in Hawaii who were finding incredible things that were just about to be released. This is the guy who ran that "Trump University" scam, and so forth. What do Trump's words mean? Nothing. What would Trump do, if presented with a bill based on the Alexander-Murray concept? Who the fuck knows? He's Trump. I doubt he knows. Tell him he's repealing Obamacare, and he'll sign it. It's not like he'd read it.
Paul Ryan, on the other hand, is a strategic actor. As I wrote yesterday, he is in a strategic bind. He is almost certainly unthrilled with Trump's actions, and if I had to bet, I'd bet he would prefer to put Alexander-Murray, once formulated into a bill, up for a vote. I'd also bet that, for position-taking purposes (see Mayhew, David), he would prefer to vote against the bill, but simply allowing the bill to come up for a vote as Speaker would tell you his real preferences. If he really opposed a bill, he'd never let it get a vote. Ryan wants those subsidies back to ensure stabilization of the markets because destabilized markets hurt the party in power. That would be the GOP. The problem is, as I said yesterday, Ryan is worried about his right-flank. Those would be the "knuckleheads," in John Boehner's words, who sacked one of the best Speakers in modern history. I'm still speaking of John Boehner. So, where does that leave Ryan? Here. Ryan is tepid at best in his reaction to Alexander-Murray, and mostly just saying REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL! Why? Either Ryan is all in on sabotage, or he feels constrained by those who want sabotage.
The thing is that Ryan has a record. Ryan was never one of the bomb-throwers. While he is a far-right conservative, he has always been more pragmatic than the knuckleheads. He was never a "let's breach the debt ceiling and see what happens" kind of guy. He was never a "let's shut down the government for the fucking hell of it" kind of guy. Ryan is way conservative, but he is more of a pragmatist than a bomb-thrower (the term going back to the Gingrich era). Blocking Alexander-Murray is Gingrich-style bomb-throwing. Trump is a direct political descendent of Newt Gingrich and the bomb-throwers. That's why Trump and Gingrich got along so well. (Well, that and the combination of stupidity, arrogance and womanizing...) Given Ryan's general preference for pragmatism, I see Ryan's response here as that of a man constrained by the fear of getting Boehnered rather than a belief that Alexander-Murray should be blocked in favor of continued, futile work on that "repeal-and-replace" nonsense.
What happens now? No clue. Ryan didn't actually say, I ain't passin' that shit, and Trump is just... Trump. Trying to predict what happens with this kind of thing right now is a mug's game. There are lawsuits, terror in the healthcare markets... This is all just chaotic and crazy. Yup, just another Thursday in the Trump era.
But hey, it isn't like anyone in the White House is using private email accounts, right?
Oh, wait...