Reading the tea leaves on Trump and Flynn

As you may have read, Flynn's people aren't talking to Trump's people anymore.

What does that mean?

Um...  Stop trying to guess.  It means that Flynn's lawyers have finally started acting like, ya' know, lawyers.  Here's the thing.  Flynn committed a fuckload of crimes.  He was working on behalf of the Turkish government as an "unregistered foreign agent," for starters, and that's before we get into his many connections with Russia, the high likelihood that he was involved with the collusion we now know to have taken place, the fact that he repeatedly perjured himself regarding Russia, his violations of the Logan Act...  Yeah, there's a lot on Flynn.  Trump was warned, before naming him National Security Advisor, that the guy was susceptible to blackmail because there was so much on him.

What does the news mean?  Any lawyer will tell you that, if you are facing this many charges, you need to shut the fuck up.

For Flynn, though, his get-out-of-the-federal-penitentiary-free card is a Trump pardon.  The problems are twofold.  First, if Flynn actually coordinates with Trump on that... whole different realm of trouble.  Second, the timing.  Flynn might have to serve a little time before that pardon comes, Scooter Libby-style.  (Technically, Libby got a commutation rather than a pardon, which pissed Cheney off, but Dick can go fuck himself on that).

Speculation is being bandied about that Flynn has flipped on Donny-boy.  I doubt it, but there would be no way to tell.  My favorite term is appropriate once again:  observational equivalence.  Two models each generate the same prediction.  If Flynn flips, his lawyers stop talking to Trump's people.  If they just wise(guy) up and decide that they'll drag this out and wait for a pardon which will probably come if Flynn stays quiet and gets convicted after a lengthy trial... same deal.

What does it mean that Flynn's people and Trump's people have stopped talking?  We can't tell.  Observational equivalence strikes again.

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