I think the betting markets are right here. This isn't a tie.
The last time I wrote about this, I suggested that things were leaning towards the GOP expelling Moore should he win. I don't even think that's the case anymore. The reason, in both cases?
Al Franken. We can throw in people like Glenn Thrush, Charlie Rose, and every other shitbag out there, but Franken is the big one.
Two things are happening here. If the focus is on people other than Moore, then Alabamans aren't thinking about the fact that one of their candidates is a fucking child molester. Everything reverts to party identification, and Roy Moore wins. Second, Al Franken, by not resigning, takes away the moral standing of Democrats to argue against Moore. Realistically, that isn't completely the case. There's a difference between armed robbery and murder. They are both violent crimes, but one is worse. Roy Moore is a child molester. He's worse. But, until the Democrats clean house, Franken muddies the waters, and that's all Republicans need. It's Alabama. Moore is a Republican.
Then, there's the question of whether the Senate GOP will really expel him. I thought there was a high likelihood of that happening... before the Franken story broke. If Franken doesn't resign, I don't see Moore being expelled. Franken has signaled that he won't resign. If he won't resign, which GOP Senators will support leaving Franken in place while expelling Moore?
Yeah...
You see my point.
There is a lot of value to having this shit start to come out. Sexual harassment is real and rampant. It is worth keeping in mind that it is possible that some of these stories might be false (remember Duke), but when you have this many stories about the same guy, the likelihood that they are all false is low. That's the point. However, the fact that so much is coming out now...
...
That's protecting Roy Moore. It means he can hide among the muck.
It sucks to write that, but at least I can end the post with this.
