Trump gave his little speech, and as usual, he doesn't understand much of anything. For the moment, I'm going to focus on a line getting significant attention: "The weapons you are acquiring are not making you safer," directed at Kim Jong Un and the North Korean regime.
Um, yes they absolutely are.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, Vietnam, Libya... Korea long ago... I'm making a list here. It isn't by any means a complete list, but what do these places have in common? We have invaded them, or otherwise bombed the shit out of them. What did they have in common? They didn't have nukes.
Now... the Soviet Union? Nope. As heated as things ever got with them, or with China... nope. Pakistan is... weird. Nukes=safety from us. Why? The cost of us invading is too high.
I have, of course, covered this before, and the logic of nuclear deterrence is well-understood in political science. Time for your obligatory reference to Thomas Schelling's The Strategy of Conflict, but that's not where I'm going today. Where I'm going today is... what if North Korea disarmed?
After we invaded Iraq for the second time, Qaddafi actually started playing kind of nice with us, like it scared the shit out of him. See what that got him? And that's kind of my point. But, it's even worse with Trump... because he's a fuckin' liar, and everyone knows it.
Time for another reference, which I have made many times because everyone should read it. Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power. It is really more about domestic than international politics, but some of the principles apply. Presidential leadership is about bargaining because power is informal, and based on persuasion. But hey! Trump is the consummate deal-maker, right? Yeah... right. What makes a president effective when it comes to bargaining? Professional reputation. A reputation for going back on your word... undercuts that.
And this is one of Trump's biggest problems. Everyone at the elite level knows that he is a craven liar. At the mass level, there are still a bunch of dupes, but seriously. When Comey was being questioned by Congress, he said that he took copious notes because he thought Trump would lie about their one-on-ones, and not even the Republicans challenged him on that! At the elite level, everyone knows that Trump is a fucking liar. Nobody trusts him. The reason he can't get a loan from an American bank, and the reason his dumbass kids claim that his money comes from Russia, is that everyone at the elite level knows that Trump is a lying, cheating, craven, shameless pile of toxic waste.
Given what we know about deterrence theory, North Korea is currently safe from US attack unless the generals can't talk Trump out of one of his fits of stupidity (former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO James Stavridis thinks there is a 20-30% chance of Trump just losing his shit and starting a conventional war, with a 10% chance of a nuclear war).
But, suppose Trump says to Kim Jong Un, give up your nukes and I'll leave you alone. Or, give up your nukes, and not only will I leave you alone, I'll open up trade!
Would you trust Trump?
Only if you are as dumb as those fucking rubes who enrolled in Trump University. This is where professional reputation comes into the picture. Trump is the least trustworthy person who has ever occupied the Oval Office. And you know who used to occupy it? Richard Nixon.
And even if Trump weren't president, Qaddafi's experience undercuts the US's leverage here. He played nice after Dubya took out Hussein, and look where that got him? Kim Jong Un doesn't want to become the next Qaddafi.
The simple fact is that Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapons are keeping him safe, and he knows it, and Trump's professional reputation makes it impossible for anyone to bargain with him. If Kim gives up those nukes, here's what probably happens. Depending on the speed of denuclearization, if Trump is still President once the nukes are gone, he orders an immediate invasion. Why? He wants to be the tough guy who takes out Kim Jong Un. If the denuclearization takes longer, either a future president does it, or the process destabilizes the Kim regime and he just gets toppled. Kim knows this, so he won't do it. Those nukes are keeping him safe. Kim knows it. Whether or not Trump understands that, and more importantly, whether or not Trump understands that Kim understands it...
I guess we'll see.
