Update: How fucked are they? (Bob Menendez)

This is just a quick update.  Sen. Bob Menendez (D- MafiaNJ) is on trial for some serious corruption, and he's guilty.  In the initial post in the "How fucked are they?" series, I put him at a 10.  Right now, the jury is deadlocked.  Conviction requires a unanimous verdict, and the jury can't get to unanimity.  Why not?  Don't ask me.

There is a high likelihood that this is declared a mistrial, and Menendez gets a new trial.  How fucked is he?  I need to bring that 10 down.  The evidence against him is really strong, but juries are really stupid.  Why?  A jury of 12 people is a group of 12 people too stupid to get out of jury duty (origin:  unknown).  In the case of a high-profile political case, they are people who don't know shit about shit.

That will be true for the next jury too.  Let's bring that 10 down to a 7.  That puts him a notch below Manafort's current 8.

The important thing politically, though, is that the seat won't be vacated for Christie to appoint a replacement.  Even if this goes to a new trial, and Menendez is convicted, a Democrat will appoint Menendez's replacement.

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