In probability theory, there are two conceptions of what a probability actually is. Does randomness actually exist in the universe? Or, does a probabilistic statement simply reflect our imperfect information about a deterministic process? The latter interpretation is the interpretation of Bayesian statistical theory. Whether or not true randomness exists in the universe is kind of irrelevant in Bayesian theory. We, as observers, have imperfect information, and probabilistic statements simply reflect our degree of confidence based on the information we have. As we encounter more information, we "update" our probabilistic assessments. This process, when done according to strict mathematical laws, is called... Bayesian updating!
Rather than doing it in theoretical terms (following a principle called Bayes' law), I'll give you an empirical example. If I don't know anything about you except that you voted in the 2016 presidential election, my best guess about your vote choice is that you had a .485 probability of having voted for Clinton, and a .464 probability of having voted for Trump because that is the nationwide distribution. On the other hand, if I know your race, I can "update" my estimate. Tell me that you are white, and I'll update my guess about your probability of having voted for Trump to .533 based on 2016 National Election Studies data. Give me more detailed information, and I'll update the probability accordingly. Bayesian updating.
But, as I wrote in the initial "How fucked are they?" post, fuckedness isn't about probability. Yes, some political figures have to worry about prison, and that can be assessed with a simple probability, but there are other factors, like embarrassment, future business prospects, etc. There are multiple dimensions that I am collapsing onto a single scale of the degree to which one is, over-all, fucked. At some point, I will elaborate on the complicated mathematics of that, and won't that be a fun post? Still, I'm going to revel in the fact that I just mused on Bayesian updating and fuckedness. With that in mind, let's update how fucked Trump, Flynn and Manafort are.
Trump
On October 31, I put Trump at 4 out of 10 on the fucked scale. The news? Nancy Pelosi came out clearly against impeachment on CNN yesterday. When I put Trump at 4, I did so with the reasoning that impeachment was off the table anyway. So... does this matter? In terms of Trump's probability of impeachment, no. It goes from some arbitrarily small number to some similarly arbitrarily small number because even the Democrats aren't going to push for impeachment. In fact, back in May, I wrote a post titled, "Let's talk about impeachment." My strategic advice for the Democrats? Impeachment wouldn't happen, so the smarter play would be to use Trump's scandals to try to box him in and defeat him in 2020. That's what Pelosi is doing. In other words, this may have looked like news, but it is basically playing out as it should. Trump's score of 4 on the fuckedness scale comes from the fact that he won't face any legal consequences, but will continue to be humiliated by scandal. Those scandals will hurt his ego, his business dealings, and his electoral chances in 2020. No changes here. Trump's current fuckedness score remains a 4.
Flynn
There's real news here. Most major news organizations are reporting that Mueller has enough to charge Flynn, and his idiot, dirtbag kid. Why hasn't he yet? Mueller is working some serious anti-mafia tactics, so we'll see. On October 31, I put Flynn at a 2. He has no business interests (differentiating him from Trump), and no fear of embarrassment, so he doesn't have to worry about what puts Trump at a 4. Also, he can count on a presidential pardon. Trump loves that guy. Still, I have to update his score. I'm updating it to a 3 as of now. We are still at the "sources-are-reporting" stage, and we'll see what happens, but Flynn should start worrying a little more. Remember, also, that Flynn might have to serve a little time before the pardon actually happens. Not much, but a little. Nowhere near as much time as Ollie North served, but Flynn should probably start sweating a little.
Manafort
I initially put Manafort at a 7 on the fuckedness scale, and I'm updating that to an 8 based on some of the legal analysis floating around. Mueller is only charging Manafort with a few of the federal crimes he committed, and while Trump can pardon Manafort for the federal stuff, there are options for state charges in New York, and from what I can tell, Trump can't pardon Manafort for that shit. In other words, if Mueller can get cooperation from the State of New York to lean on Manafort, there is very little Trump can do besides fire Mueller and pardon himself, leaving Manafort hanging. Right now, I put Manafort at an 8 on the fuckedness scale.
