When last we left off, Lisa Murkowski started getting the tiniest bit squeamish about it, and I posted this, saying the chances of a repeal dropped "a bit." Why? Short version: Murkowski recognized the stupidity of double-sabotage of the insurance markets. The pre-Obamacare system was one with little government regulation for those under 65. If you couldn't afford health insurance, and weren't eligible for Medicaid, tough shit. Are you OK with that? That's an ideological choice based on your beliefs about the proper role of government and how much Robin Hood-ism you are willing to accept. Tell insurance companies that they have to sell plans to sick people, but that the healthy people don't have to buy plans, thereby guaranteeing adverse selection? That's just fucking stupid. Not just regular-person "stupid." We're talking Donald Trump-stupid (did you read about how H.R. McMaster said that he had the intelligence of a "kindergartner," and is a "dope?"). Add to that Trump's elimination of the cost-sharing subsidies, and you've got double-sabotage. Murkowski didn't like the idea of double-sabotage, and on Sunday, I wrote about how Murkowski wanted Alexander-Murray to pass as a condition to support a repeal of the individual mandate in the tax bill.
Note: she didn't outright oppose the repeal of the individual mandate, so I called her out for her bullshit squishiness. She voted against "skinny repeal" last summer, but she was clearly weakening. So, she could be manipulated in a variety of ways, and her vote wasn't essential. So, as I wrote on Sunday, the chances of an individual mandate repeal only dropped "a bit."
Well, Murkowski is back on board fully with an individual mandate repeal. She wrote this op-ed saying she supports repealing the individual mandate. Um... hey, Lisa! You voted against doing that last summer, you little, fuckin' twerp!
"Moderates"... Fuck this fucking cult of "moderates." They don't deserve your respect. They aren't thoughtful. They aren't principled people carefully weighing options in a complex policy environment. They are twits who vacillate because they don't know what they are doing. Murkowski's unique political circumstances make her immune to bullying from GOP leadership, and I scoffed at the idea that she could be pressured to vote for a repeal scheme. And she didn't. McConnell, though, is smart. Smarter than Murkowski. So, he's going to manipulate her instead. Nice, Mitch. This is why you are Majority Leader.
Anyway, Murkowski basically says she wants to get rid of the individual mandate, and pass something like Alexander-Murray, which restores the cost-sharing subsidies, which give money to the insurance companies that get adverse risk pools (sick customers). As I have also written, Alexander-Murray probably won't pass. McConnell might tell Murkowski, "don't worry. We'll pass Alexander-Murray!" But, he's a fuckin' liar. Alexander-Murray is probably dead. They'll pull a bait-and-switch to get Murkowski's vote. They don't give a fuck what Lisa wants. They'll lie to her because it's easier and more effective than bullying her.
And it looks like it'll work. Wow. What a moron. Or, to stick with the Looney Tunes theme from a few days ago, what a maroon! Idjit. You're making me very angry, Lisa.
Anyway, Murkowski won't stop the individual mandate repeal.
Three GOP Senators voted against "skinny repeal"-- Collins, McCain and Murkowski. Murkowski will bend on its inclusion in the GOP tax bill. That only leaves two opponents of "skinny repeal." If McConnell loses Collins and McCain, he can still pass a tax bill.
Collins is still squeamish about an individual mandate repeal, but who cares about her? Not McConnell. She's a hard vote anyway. McCain is hard to predict. His opposition to "skinny repeal," if you believe what he said, was never about the substance. It was supposedly about process. The GOP is following the same process with the whole tax bill, in which case the inclusion or exclusion of the individual mandate repeal shouldn't matter. If he's consistent, he'll vote no regardless of the substance, so why worry about what McCain thinks?
What happens to the individual mandate? I have a hard time seeing how it survives. There are two Senators left who voted against "skinny repeal" who have yet to take a firm position-- Collins and McCain. Collins doesn't matter, and McCain is... McCain. Even if McConnell loses both, though, the bill passes. I'd bet Collins opposes it, but she's irrelevant at this point.
The individual mandate could survive if the whole bill fails. That could still happen! These people are fucking morons! That's why they made Trump their leader. Short of that, though, how does the individual mandate repeal get taken out of the bill? I don't see it.
