On the future of government shutdowns

As you may have noticed, a government shutdown has been temporarily averted.  During a period of divided government with extreme polarization, like the one we just had with Obama and the modern GOP holding Congress, avoiding a shutdown was understandably real news.

Reminder:  Congress must appropriate money to federal agencies, either through normal appropriations bills, or continuing resolutions which... "continue" spending levels under current appropriations, or agencies run out of money with which to pay employees.  They start furloughing employees, beginning with the least essential.  The longer the shutdown goes on, the more essential the furloughed employees become.  Bad shit happens.  Shutdowns are blame games, so in divided government, they sometimes happen as one party tries to extract concessions from the other based on the hope that the party that takes the blame gives in because they are taking a hit in the polls.

That... doesn't work during unified government, so extended shutdowns don't work during unified government.

Then again, most of the time during unified government, the party in charge doesn't have a president who is, as I so often put it, "the dumbest motherfucker in the history of politics," combined with congressional caucuses filled with people for whom John Boehner-- their own sacked leader-- had nothing but contempt.  (I'll even lower myself to link to a Politico story, because it centers on a Boehner interview, and Boehner is awesome...)

So, yes, a shutdown is averted.  For a couple of weeks.  What happens in a couple of weeks?  Here's the betting on a shutdown by Christmas.  I'd put the odds at a bit higher than 20% based on two factors.  First, the GOP can't put anything together now.  That means they are scrambling, as usual.  They don't know what they are doing.  Second, the Democrats have more leverage than any minority party should because of Republican disarray.  Add to that Trump doing everything possible to put all blame on himself for any shutdown with his Trumpian tweets, and Pelosi and Schumer have way more leverage than any minority party should.  How much can they demand, and how much will they get?

More to come on this, as that clock ticks down...

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