What do I keep telling you? Never look at one poll. Always look at the average. Why? Because if you do enough polls, you'll get a weird one. Should you assume that Fox polls are biased towards the GOP, and thus that Jones is really way ahead? Or, should you just factor that poll into the rest of the data?
You should do the latter. Look at all of the polls together. All poll aggregators do basically the same thing. We have a lot of polls. Most of them put Moore in the lead. Alabama is a Republican state. Moore is a Republican. Yes, he's a child-molesting, idiot demagogue, but this is Alabama. As I wrote when the news broke, he passed the Edwin Edwards test. Live girls. In his 1983 campaign, Edwards said that the only way he could lose is if he were caught in bed with a "dead girl or a live boy." They don't care about molesting girls in Alabama, and intelligence is a negative in Alabama. Bible-thumping is a good thing, as far as they are concerned. Does Moore want to get rid of the 13th-15th Amendments? Yes he does. As far as Alabama voters are concerned, that's just awesome.
Oh, and according to his wife (who is not a teenager), he can't be racist, because his lawyer is a jew.
Classic.
But, this is Alabama we are talking about.
The odds favor Moore. Betting at PredictIt gives him about a 70% chance, roughly.
If Doug Jones wins (30%, according to PredictIt...), I'm going to spend some time tomorrow writing about a dude named Tim Huelskamp. Maybe I will anyway, with that teaser, but otherwise, default to party ID. It's fucking Alabama.
That was less quick than the title suggested. Sorry...