Then, we have the DACA craziness. Two pieces, actually. First, Senate Democrats have decided that they aren't making a DACA deal a precondition for a government funding deal. As far as shutdown showdowns go, yes, they caved completely. They had no hand to play, and once McConnell gave Schumer a face-saving way to back down, Schumer took it. It's as I have been writing.
But, we also have Trump's proposal, such as it is. Some form of DACA policy, wall funding, ending chain migration, and some other stuff. Will it go anywhere? If you've been reading my comments, you can guess what I think: not bloody likely. Why not? The House. Specifically, the House Freedom Caucus. They're going to look at the DACA part of Trump's proposal, and the "path to citizenship," strip those out, insist that Paul Ryan not let anything with a "path to citizenship" get a floor vote, and Trump gets to claim that he tried to be all-bipartisan-'n'-shit without actually having to do anything while the House kills the deal. Schumer said earlier this week that the Dems weren't interested in wall funding anymore, so... this looks tenuous at best.
So... why am I writing about these two things? Here's the deal. Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power. Presidents don't have a whole hell of a lot of formal legislative power. Whatever they can do is limited by their professional reputations and their ability to bargain based on their reputations. You need to be perceived as bargaining in good faith.
Trump looooooves to tell you about what a great deal-maker he is, but...
Do I have to finish that sentence? Trump doesn't do anything in good faith. In particular, Democrats have no reason to trust that he is bargaining about immigration in good faith. And Mueller is connected to this. Every time a new Trump lie is revealed, it makes it that much more difficult for Democrats to trust that they can sit at a table with Trump and negotiate with him in good faith without worrying that he's about to stab them in the backs like some... Donald Trump-type person.
Trump has been saying from the beginning that he wasn't even considering firing Mueller. His people have been saying the same thing. There are three groups of congressional Republicans: 1) those who have been saying that Trump can't fire Mueller without crossing a red line, 2) those who say it isn't an issue because he'd never do it, and 3) those who say he must fire Mueller because... "deep state" conspiracy, chemtrails and lizard people, or some such bullshit.
Group 1... they're about as sincere as Bob Corker and his deficit hawkery. I called bullshit on that all throughout the tax debate. I questioned it on the initial Senate floor vote, and... that was a mistake for me. Corker voted for the tax cut in the end. He's no deficit hawk. There are no Republican deficit hawks. Any Republican who claims to be anything other than a supply-sider is a liar. Once Bob Dole adopted a flat tax proposal in '96 with Kemp as his running mate, that was it for deficit hawkery in the GOP.
Any Republican who says they won't back Trump if he fires Mueller is a fuckin' liar. How do I know that? Not one of them has stood up to him on anything else. Spineless cowards, all. Every last one of them. Corker, Flake and McCain included. Yes, John McCain too. They will all back down, no matter what.
Group 2. Obviously, they're wrong. Will they admit it? No. Democrats have introduced legislation to try to prevent Trump from firing Mueller, and Republicans have blocked it saying that it isn't necessary because they haven't seen signs that Trump would do it. What now for Group 2? Denial. And if pressed on it? Waffling, running from the camera, panic, ex post facto rationalization, and eventually, submission to their lord and master, Donald Trump. See comments on Group 1.
Group 3. Um... uh... These people... run our country. Yeah.
How do you bargain with a president, currently under federal investigation, who insists that he would never fire the investigator, but in fact, tried to fire the investigator last summer, but had his top lawyer threaten to quit amid his refusal to carry out that order?
Neustadt. You can't engage in negotiations if you aren't seen as a trustworthy negotiator, and this is a classic demonstration of why nobody smart enough to avoid enrolling in Trump University trusts Donald J. Fucking Trump.
Of course, it looked for a while like Schumer was actually trying. Why? Schumer's a moron. What happens now? Like I said, probably nothing, but you can't bargain if the other side can't trust you to negotiate in good faith.
You know what undercuts that? Being under federal investigation, claiming you'd never fire the investigator, and then having yesterday's news come out.
See? I connected DACA to the Mueller story! Why make choices when chocolate and peanut butter go so well together?