Here's a quick recap of how I have been describing everything. A DACA deal won't happen. House conservatives won't let Paul Ryan bring a bill to the floor because anything with a path to citizenship for any illegal immigrant, regardless of how they crossed the border, will be called "amnesty," and for a Republican, being accused of supporting "amnesty" is pretty much the worst accusation that can be made. The House cannot pass a DACA deal, and everything else about DACA is just bluster. So, the Democrats have painted themselves into a corner, making a demand that cannot be met, shutting down the government the same way Ted Cruz did in 2013 with a non-germane policy demand that the governing party cannot meet. And Trump is just... Trump. Shutdowns end with someone giving the losing side a face-saving way to back down.
As of yesterday morning's post, I didn't see the GOP doing that because Trump was running his "Democrats are murderers" ad. Later in the day, though, Mitch McConnell demonstrated once again that he is the only Republican in Washington D.C. with a strategic brain in his head.
OK, you know the old joke. The one that ends: "We've already established that. We're just haggling about the price." It's antiquated, misogynistic, and offensive. And not even remotely funny. It is the kind of thing that Donald Trump would find funny. If you tell the joke for its own sake, you are a piece of shit. The reason the joke still circulates is by analogy, and crass as the joke is, the analogy is useful.
So here's what happened. McConnell can't give the Democrats a DACA deal. Why? He can't make the House, or Trump do anything. A DACA deal just isn't in the cards. But, he needed to offer Schumer a way to try to escape from the corner into which he had painted himself. That method was to offer a Senate floor vote on a bill. What does that mean? Not a whole hell of a lot because Paul Ryan doesn't have to let that bill get a floor vote, much less pass it, and even if it did pass the House, Trump is still Trump. McConnell can't negotiate on Trump's behalf, and Trump can't hold a consistent thought in his head for two fucking seconds. Besides that, he hates DACA because a) he's racist, and b) it was Obama's policy. So, what does Schumer get? On policy, not much if anything. He just gets a way to back down from the shutdown.
So, in exchange for... not much, Schumer agrees to three more weeks of funding, during which.... something... might happen on DACA. And if nothing comes of that? If Democrats and Republicans are still no closer to a real deal on DACA than they were two days ago? Will Schumer shut everything down again? And hold to that shutdown?
Well, he just backed down after a couple of days in exchange for nothing. McConnell established what kind of Senator Schumer is. Then again, Schumer didn't have much of a hand to play from the start, as I have been writing. The only thing that separates his position from Ted Cruz in 2013 is that his public foil is Trump. So, where does this go? Probably nowhere. I can't see the House passing a real DACA deal, and we now know that Schumer caves. If McConnell says to Schumer, "look, I did what I could, but the House is another chamber. You want DACA? Win some elections. Wasn't that what you were saying back in 2013?"
If Schumer had the will to see a shutdown through, why not do it now? Because I don't think he has the will. That's the point.
Basically, it does look to me like the Democrats caved. The counterargument you may see is that the Democrats got CHIP funding (the Children's Health Insurance Program). Have you noticed that I haven't even mentioned that? Why? Because that was something I figured would get resolved anyway. This was a popular program. Ending funding for a popular program would have made the Republican position look very bad. So, the GOP took that off the table. That was bargaining leverage for the Democrats because it made the Republicans look bad. The Democrats have nothing left.
Kicking out the beneficiaries of DACA is not popular, but it is very low salience, and shutting down the government over this... I am very skeptical that Democrats can win this. I think Schumer is too. That's probably why he just caved. McConnell did what Trump is too stupid to do. He looked for a way to give Democrats a face-saving way to cave.
In three weeks, though, the Democrats have to decide how fully to cave.
