That was a bonehead move, and if I were a bigger person, I wouldn't say, "I told you so," but I'm me.
I told you so.
Here's what I've been saying all along on DACA: there won't be a deal because Paul Ryan can't let it get a vote on the House floor. Here's what I was saying about Pelosi's shutdown idea: it was a dumb idea because Ryan couldn't give in to her demand, and the Democrats (Schumer) had already caved on this same thing. This was a doomed strategy from the get-go.
So what happened? There's a big deal in the works! Congress has been working on undoing some of the massively stupid shit they pulled in 2011 through 2013 with the Budget Control Act, sequestration, and they're even going to deal with the debt ceiling through the election! Then, along comes Nancy Pelosi, she looks at what Schumer did a few weeks back and says, "hey, that crow looked nummy! I think I'll order me some of that!"
Remember, Schumer and the Senate Democrats caved. Why? They were going to take the blame for the shutdown, which was a technical shutdown running through a weekend. Schumer caved rather than have it affect anyone, and they voted for a spending bill that got everything up and running on a Monday.
This time, Ryan is looking at a bunch of Freedom Caucus nutjob defectors. This is fuzzier, right? Who takes the blame for a shutdown if the GOP is divided and Dems don't supply enough votes to put this thing over the line? The correct answer is not to ask who has the more morally justified policy. That's ideology there, buddy. The correct answer is: the hostage-takers. That would be the side making non-germane policy demands. Whoever is acting most like Ted Cruz circa 2013. That would be the Democrats right now.
Good head check: ask yourself, am I acting like Ted Cruz? If so, I'm doing something wrong!
But, of course, Democrats blinked last time 'round.
This time too. After a brief technical shutdown, Democrats supplied 73 yes votes on the House bill this morning, and the shutdown ended. Pelosi couldn't keep her caucus together.
This matters. Pelosi made a threat that she couldn't back up. Go back to your Tom Schelling. If your threats are to be credible, you need to demonstrate the ability to carry them out, and Pelosi just failed. Big time. And it mattered because it was a challenging one. You make a threat like that and fail, and you've got problems.
There have been rumblings about a change in House leadership, and to be blunt, I don't see a whole lot of strategic genius in the waiting, but Pelosi just led the House Democrats off the same cliff that Schumer did for the Senate Democrats.
Smartest legislative tactician in DC right now, by far: Mitch McConnell.
