No, let's deal with Russia. In addition to the irrelevant Democratic response to the "Nunes abstract philosophy memo," we've got a bunch of new charges and indictments. And fun for political scientists and economists alike over at PredictIt! Yup, we've got betting on who will get charged, convicted or pardoned. Some of this is clearly nuts. 39 cents on the dollar for Trump to be impeached in his first term? No. Just... no. If you want to throw your money away, then go for it. Even if the Democrats take the House, they aren't going to impeach him. They'll count the votes in the Senate, decide that it isn't worth going through the rigamarole to fail to convict, and they won't do it. More on that shortly.
Then, you've got the interesting stuff, like the betting on Manafort and Gates, who are facing new charges. 68 cents on the dollar for Manafort to be convicted by the end of the year, and 18 cents on the dollar for him to be pardoned. I gotta say, that seems low to me. If he looks like he's flipping on Trump, Trump has to pardon him. Would you trust Manafort to keep his pie hole shut?
Here's the problem with many of these predictions, though. We are making guesses with little to no information. Mueller, unlike Trump, runs a tight ship. We find out what he has, only in limited amounts when he announces indictments.
How, then, can I say with such certainty that Trump won't be impeached?
Are you paying attention to that little shit, Nunes, or CPAC, or how the Republican Party responds to any of this? Trump cannot be removed from office without consent from at least some members of the GOP because conviction in the Senate requires a 2/3 supermajority. Even if the Democrats get a House majority in 2018, there is no point impeaching a president who can't be convicted.
Not one Senate Republican would ever agree to that.
Not. One.
Zero.
There would be zero votes from the Republican Party to convict Trump, no matter what Mueller finds. Not from McCain, not from Collins, not from Murkowski, not from Corker, not from Flake... Remember that Corker is considering un-retiring, after cozying up to Trump. This, after all of the noise he made about Trump debasing the nation, the White House being adult day care, and so forth.
Not. One. Vote.
We call this technique, "backwards induction," in game theory. Probability of conviction in the Senate will always be zero. Knowing that the Senate won't convict Trump, even if the Democrats take the House in 2018, an impeachment would be embarrassing and costly to the Democrats. Hence, they wouldn't do it.
Trump will not be impeached. Period.
What, then, do we take from Mueller's latest news? I'm not sure. It all depends on who is willing to stay silent for Trump. Either people stay silent and do their time for him, or they flip on him, and if he is worried about the latter... pardons are on the way! Why bother, though, if he won't be impeached? He hates embarrassment.