I am that weird person who looks back at modern Speakers and thinks we've had two great ones, both of whom I just... liked. And since I'm an asshole, that's saying something. Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner. Actually, a bunch of political scientists have high opinions of both! On this one, though, I don't know what Pelosi is thinking.
Remember that we need to define "hostage-taking." Making a non-germane policy demand in exchange for something like routine operation of the government. Republicans did that all the time with Obama. DACA is not about routine operation of the government. However much you might like it, it is not about the routine operation of the government. If you demand DACA for routine operation of the government, that is basically no different than Ted Cruz demanding Obamacare defunding for routine operation of the government. That's hostage-taking. Democrats are the hostage-takers here. I don't like hypocrisy.
And Schumer caved last time around. Why does Pelosi think this will work? I... don't get it. Here's the big problem. Paul Ryan can't give in. If he does, he's toast as Speaker. There's a reason John Boehner isn't Speaker. Because of divided government under Obama, routine operation of the government required him to cut too many deals with Democrats, but the Freedom Caucus didn't understand that. They were hardliners who drove him out of office because they didn't understand that the GOP couldn't just pretend it controlled everything. Boehner didn't have a choice, though. The hardliners were never going to be with him. The Jim Jordans and the Mark Meadowses... they were lost causes. Without them, Boehner had to cut deals with House Democrats just to avoid shutdowns. So, he did, and got run out of office for it.
Paul Ryan doesn't want to get Boehnered. He has to use what we call "negative agenda control." If a bill would divide the majority caucus, he won't let it get a floor vote. Particularly if the Freedom Caucus doesn't like it. A lot of Republicans don't want a DACA deal. So, no floor vote. That way, they don't even have to cast the unpopular vote! End of story. This is Congress 101.
Pelosi wants a vote on some DACA deal? Paul Ryan can't let her have it. If he does, he loses the Speakership, unless he gets something that the Freedom Caucus accepts as worth the deal, which Pelosi won't give.
So, Paul Ryan can't give Pelosi what she is demanding.
Does this mean we get a shutdown? Well, either that or...
1) Enough Democrats cave the way Schumer did, or
2) The Freedom Caucus quits whining and votes for the plan the Senate OK'ed. That takes away Pelosi's power. Remember that all of Pelosi's power comes from a divided GOP caucus. They unify, and she's got bupkis.
If there is real strategy to what Pelosi is doing, maybe it's just stirring up trouble within the GOP, and forcing Ryan and the Freedom Caucus to seal a deal quickly. I dunno.
Do we see a shutdown? Maybe. At most, a short one. DACA? No. Paul Ryan can't let it get a floor vote in the House. I've been saying that all along, and that's still the reason. What is Pelosi doing? I don't know. She'd have more leverage if she asked for something else. With the Freedom Caucus still caucusing all over the House floor, Pelosi can make some demands to fill in the remaining votes Ryan needs, but asking for things Ryan can't give her? That doesn't make sense to me. Whatever you think of DACA, I just don't see the plan here.