This morning, of course, I refer to the fact that Mueller has subpoenaed documents from Trump's business operations, which crosses one of Trump's supposed red lines. Trump looks like he is about to fire HR McMaster, right after firing Tillerson, and amid other firings. (Remember that McMaster was the guy who replaced Michael Flynn, who has already pled guilty to some charges). There are some sanctions being imposed on Russia for the election meddling that Trump still sometimes denies occurred, and that the House Republicans say weren't intended to help Trump. McCabe is maybe being fired for... oh, fuck it. I can't even try to cover all of the shit that would warrant a post.
Insert my standard Ben Bradlee comment, conveyed to me by my grad school advisor, Nelson Polsby. Ben Bradlee, as executive editor of the Washington Post, used to say that he wanted everyone to wake up every morning, open up the paper and say, "holy shit!" It was a journalist's job to call up professors (hi!) and ask us, "holy shit, right prof? Holy shit?" Nelson used to say that it was our job to say, "no, not holy shit. This is normal and typical and within the range of what we expect, because of X, Y and Z," or something like that."
Firing McMaster... that, in and of itself, isn't a true "holy shit" moment, assuming it happens. Neither is firing McCabe, although it would be closer, if it happens. However, add up all of the firings, and there is a level of sacredness to that pile of feces that demands worship. Bow down and pay homage to the excrement, for it is, indeed, divine. And that's before we get to Mueller subpoenaing Trump's business records. That's some awesomely blessed defecation.
The swirling chaos (swirly?) of Trump's Presidency moves so quickly that I haven't mentioned the Stormy Daniels lawsuit, that idiotic trade war he's trying to start, or... or... or... And that brings me to the fundamental question of The Chaos Presidency. Despite all of this, when was the last time you checked Donny's approval ratings? Head on over to Gallup, and they're still steady just below 40%.
How's the economy? Still growing. Stock market? Still up. International scene? Nuts, but the nukes haven't launched, no new conflagrations, or anything like that...
So, I note the disconnect. We have the most batshit crazy administration in American history. The Chaos Presidency, contrasted with... stability. Genius? Not so much, but note the stability. What's the deal?
With respect to Trump's approval ratings, why doesn't anything affect them? It's all baked in already. The 39% or whatever of the population who still approve of him a) don't pay attention, b) are mindless partisans, c) worship sociopathic, racist, misogynistic bullies, or d) any combination of the above. They are pretty much unmovable without an economic collapse or major international catastrophe. If the economy tanks or something like that, sure. Trump's numbers can go lower, but beyond that, the chaos doesn't matter because they don't listen, don't care, or both. And, the numbers can't go higher because anyone who doesn't approve of him now is either a) not paying attention, b) is a mindless partisan in the other direction, c) hates sociopathic, racist, misogynistic bullies, or d) any combination of the above. Their opposition is locked in, for the same reason.
Then, we have the fascinating observation that The Chaos Presidency has not resulted in, well... chaos. Why not? Some thoughts:
1) The presidency is not as strong as many people think. It is the focus of public attention, but institutionally constrained.
2) Trump is too distracted and stupid to direct his idiocy in a damaging way.
3) The people around Trump have done a reasonable job of preventing him from doing a lot of the stupid shit he wants to do.
4) The American system of government is more idiot-proof than we ever imagined.
5) The damage of The Chaos Presidency is in its contribution to long-term degradation rather than in creating sudden crises.
6) We won't see the problems until faced with an external crisis.
These are just a few morning thoughts. 1 is pretty much solid, in political science terms. The presidency is the focus of public attention, but institutionally, it is only as strong as Congress lets it be. 2? Harder. Stick Trump in front of a tv, and he gets distracted. He's an idiot child. Then again, that can do harm too. 3 is very hard to test because it's about what we don't see. 4 is the optimistic version, and it will be put up against 6... 5 is a pretty compelling case. Trump has made stupid, lazy lying a norm and expectation. See: his comments to Trudeau on trade deficits. Add bullying, racism, misogyny, and too many other evils to list here... he is a piece of shit, and the structure of our political dialog requires lots of people to treat all of his evils as normal and acceptable. That's... horrific because it normalizes evil, and I don't know a way back. Then, there's 6. (Obviously, an important number for this blog).
The eternal question for the presidency, as far as I'm concerned, is this: October 1962. How would a person respond? The Chaos Presidency? Would this group of fuckwits handle it well?
The true damage of The Chaos Presidency would be seen when faced with an external crises. We have been lucky so far not to see that. How long will that luck hold?
I don't know. Until then, here's Professor Chaos...
