The firing of Rex Tillerson, and the hanging-on of Steve Mnuchin and James Mattis

I'll wait to comment on the Pennsylvania special election until the results are finalized (to the degree that there will be anything to say...), and for now, oh, poor Rex.

Well, not "poor" in the sense of not having money, and the humiliation he suffered was his own fault for accepting a job in the Trump administration, so it is hard to have any actual sympathy for the guy, but... I really can't think of a way to salvage that word.  Never mind.  Let's all have a good laugh at Rex Tillerson.

Rex earned my heart, to some modest degree, by pointing out what we all knew-- that Trump is a "fucking moron."  Less famous, though, was the supposed "suicide pact" formed by Rex, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin that if one of them were fired, the other two would quit.  Does anyone remember that?  It was big news last fall.  Of course, Mnuchin wound up in his own trouble since then, besides which, he's a useless dolt.  Mattis has since been caught referring to Trump as a "dope" and an "idiot," among other things.  Yet... they haven't gone anywhere!  What's the deal?

Some possibilities:

1)  The story was overblown in the first place.

2)  Mnuchin and Mattis watched Trump bash Tillerson, and threw him overboard already.

3)  Mnuchin and Mattis just stabbed Tillerson in the back.

4)  Mnuchin's trouble already killed the deal, so Mattis just went off on his own.

5)  Tillerson wasn't doing his job, so he got thrown overboard by Mnuchin and Mattis.

This is just a basic set of possibilities.  We can't rule out 1.  Nobody really sat in on meetings between Tillerson, Mattis and Mnuchin anyway.  What about 2?  Tillerson was clearly getting marginalized, and if Mnuchin and Mattis decided that he was a lost cause, then at some point, the agreement may have been altered.  Mnuchin should pray that Mattis doesn't alter the deal any further.  Or maybe the other way around...  Mnuchin kisses Trump's ass more effectively, and in the Trump White House, that counts for more than competence.

3 is only slightly different.  The agreement may have been in effect, as far as Tillerson knew, but then he got fired, by surprise, and now Mnuchin and Mattis are just refusing to hold up their end.  Why?  They don't want to leave.  The point was to threaten Trump not to fire any of them, but if it is costly for any one of them to leave, then it is irrational for any one of them to carry out that threat.  So, Trump wasn't deterred, and he fired Tillerson.  Neither Mnuchin nor Mattis carry out the threat.  Basic failure of deterrence.  See:  Schelling, Thomas.

Then, there's 4.  You know how Steve Mnuchin is kind of a turd, and faced plenty of trouble on his own?  If the agreement already broke down because of that shit with his wife, then it was already null and void when Trump fired Tillerson anyway.

Aaaaand finally, 5.  This one is getting a bunch of discussion.  Was Tillerson competent as Sec. State?  I find it difficult to tell because the State Department is, shall we say, not prioritized by Trump.  He couldn't do his job while being undercut by Trump, but that's separate from whether or not he could have done his job without having been undercut.  Did he do his job?  No.  Could he have done his job?  Probably not.  He did a lot of stupid shit, but this is a harder question than some have portrayed it to be.

Still... he did suck.  The only one with a brain in this trio is Mattis.  Mnuchin is making an ass of himself, Tillerson is, at best, unable to function under Trump... so why the hell should Mattis quit?  And if Mattis doesn't quit, why should Mnuchin?

What's really going on?  I'm not sure.  But, it's always fun to try to game this out.

Bye, Rex.  Thanks for giving me permission to type this:  Donald Trump is a "fucking moron" (source: Tillerson, Rex).

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