Shocker. Total shocker. Observe my absolute and complete surprise. McConnell's explanation, as usual, is what we call, in political science terms, a "lie." I really wish people didn't shy away from calling out lies for what they are, but... he lied. Again, shocker. McConnell, and the rest of GOP leadership, have been saying that Trump won't fire Mueller, so there isn't a need to pass any legislation shielding Mueller from being fired, which, of course, ducks the point.
Now, suppose that the probability of Trump firing Mueller were actually zero. If that were true, then passing any legislation to shield Mueller would be silly. Would it do any harm? No. Would it distract from the busy legislative calendar of.. um... that... stuff... that...
No. There is nothing else happening in Congress, except for attempts to block the exits as people like Charlie Dent flee in terror.
Does McConnell believe that the probability of Trump firing Mueller is zero? No. No, he does not. PredictIt currently has the odds of Mueller being out by the end of the month at 5%, and 16% for the end of June, roughly. Rosenstein's odds are worse, but firing him is the first step towards firing Mueller. As I argued a couple of days ago, I don't think it is obvious that Trump fires Mueller because at the end of the day, the GOP will protect Trump, no matter what Mueller finds, so... why bother? McConnell may very well be the one who made that promise, and if that's the case, that may be the basis of his confidence. Consider: McConnell says to Trump, "don't worry, there's no way the Democrats get 67 Senate seats, and we'll never vote to convict, so back off of Mueller. You'd just create an unnecessary scandal." Seems kind of plausible, no? But, anyone who has absolute confidence in Trump's... stability...
No. Just... no.
This brings me to the social science lesson for the day, coming from economics. The axiom of revealed preferences. People reveal their preferences through their actions. McConnell wants Trump to have the ability to fire Mueller. If he didn't, he'd bring legislation to the Senate floor to take that power away. Why?
McConnell's goal, just like that of every other Republican leader, is to protect Trump. If Trump goes down, the party goes down, and McConnell is, first and foremost, a partisan. Right now, it is uncertain whether or not the best way to shield Trump is to fire Mueller. If all Mueller can do is charge Manafort, Flynn and a few lower-level people while making some statements about Trump, the fallout from firing Mueller might outweigh the benefit of stopping him now. On the other hand, if he's getting too close to something dangerous on Trump, Donny needs the ability to fire him to protect the party. The challenge for Trump, and for McConnell, is knowing what that point is. Since McConnell is looking at this through a partisan lens, he wants Trump to be able to shut down the investigation. As far as McConnell is concerned, Trump's dangers are his dangers.
McConnell will never, under any circumstances, allow Trump to be removed from office. Even if the Democrats get a majority in the House and impeach Trump, McConnell will ensure that the Senate doesn't get 67 votes to convict. Trump is safe.
McConnell's job just might be easier if Mueller gets fired, so McConnell needs to make sure Trump retains that power.
McConnell knows Trump has considered firing Mueller. Repeatedly. He reads the news. He knows Trump tried to fire Mueller already. He knows it's on the table. When he says Trump would never do it, and that's why he won't hold a vote... he's just lying, the way Mitch McConnell does. Axiom of revealed preferences. He wants Trump to retain the power to fire Mueller because it might make it easier to continue shielding Trump from any and all legal consequences.
That's the primary purpose of the Republican Party right now. They already got their tax cut.