So, Wag the Dog, right?
Trying to figure out precisely what is happening in Trump's Trump-brain is a mug's game, but it is worth reminding you how the phenomenon normally works. We call it the "rally-'round-the-flag" effect. In times of international crisis, the president's approval rating tends to go up. I say, "tends" because it doesn't always happen. It is conditional on elite consensus. Remember that most people, regardless of what they say in polls (bunch of damned liars...) are partisans. They take cues from partisan leaders. How do you get a president with an approval rating significantly above the baseline partisan divisions? (Or below it?) Signaling. During an international crisis, like a war, or pseudo-warlike-conflict-type thing since we don't declare war anymore, the opposition party tends to say, "we're all Americans and we stand together," or some other kumbaya hippie shit. Except hippies tend to oppose the killing part, so they stand on the other side, but you get the point.
Anyway, that's the normal pattern. Trump's approval at Gallup right now is at 41%. And that's a high point for him, relatively speaking. Why? Part of it is... he's Trump and he goes out of his way to alienate anyone who isn't already in the Trump cult of personality, but part of it is that Democratic leaders signal to Democratic partisans that he is a festering boil on the body politic.
What if they didn't? Rally effect. If we had a major international crisis and Democratic leaders signaled to their base that they should support Donny-boy because we're all 'mer'cans, his approval rating would go up. That conditional effect, based on signaling, is the key. See, for example, Richard Brody's work in Assessing the President. The flip-side is that without elite consensus, no rally effect.
Wagging the dog doesn't work without elite consensus. That consensus doesn't develop when the other side calls it "wagging the dog." It's kind of like the 9/11 hijackers and box-cutters. You know how the TSA won't let you take anything even remotely sharp on a plane? This is stupid. Why? Because the 9/11 thing can't happen anymore. 9/11 worked because the people on the first three planes thought that by cooperating, they'd live. Nope. Once the people on the fourth plane found out what was happening, they fought back, and the fourth plane crashed before reaching its target (probably the White House). Some numbskull tries to hijack a plane with a box-cutter now? He gets tackled to the floor immediately, and never makes it to the cockpit. It doesn't work when you know what's happening.
Call it wagging the dog, and it doesn't work. Why not? No elite consensus. Maybe Joe Manchin, or some other red state Democrat might back Trump if this escalates, but the very fact that looking around, you see so many references to Wag the Dog, combined with the general reluctance of Democrats right now to go along with escalation, and Trump's capacity to get much of a bump out of this? Limited.
What he can do, though, is manipulate headlines. This matters. If he wants a good time to fire Rosenstein and Mueller, the best time is when the press is caught up covering military actions in Syria, and Lindsey Graham is getting off on that.
Here's the betting on Rosenstein sticking around to the end of June. Right now, the money is against him. I'd say the odds are even more against him than that, and firing Rosenstein is the first step to firing Mueller.
Hey, look! Missiles! It may not boost Trump's approval rating, but it doesn't have to. All it has to do is take up headlines and airtime while Trump pulls a Saturday Night Massacre. Does anyone seriously think Lindsey Graham will stand up to Trump? Seriously? Not one single member of the GOP congressional delegation, House or Senate, will stand up to Trump, particularly if there is any military action anywhere.
Remember, there is no chance of the GOP ever turning on Trump. Ever, under any circumstances. There never has been.
