Watching congressional resignations

Blake Farenthold is resigning from Congress.

Yay!  Farenthold is... a special kind of guy.  He's the shitbag who paid off the women with federal money.  Why is he resigning?  Because it's so bad for him that he'd just lose.  Reference time!  Gary Jacobson & Samuel Kernell's Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections.  If you think you are going to lose, just quit.  It's easier.  He is also probably being pushed out.  Then, there's John McCain.  Health problems.  Will he quit?  Maaaaaybe...

A lot of Republicans are up and quitting.  Why?  Plenty of ideosyncratic reasons, but from the Democratic perspective, that doesn't matter.  What matters is that open seats are easier to win than incumbent-held seats.  Usually.  Farenthold's resignation might make it harder for the Dems to take that one, and it's a GOP district anyway, so if I were them, I wouldn't get my hopes up about that one, but the pattern is important.  Here's the current list, or nearly current.  As I write, Farenthold's name isn't on it yet.  There's still a GOP leaning.  That's the point for this morning.  It's important.  Lots of GOP resignations.  Whether they suspect a bad year for the Republican Party, or just bad years for themselves, the effect is the same, in aggregate.

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