Immigration reform in the House

The House of Representatives is a few Zeno's paradox-sized steps away from passing an immigration reform bill. Will it pass one? I still doubt it, and even if it did, the President, you may have noticed, doesn't like immigrants unless they come specially wrapped with the promise of sexual favors for him.

The House is a majority party-run institution. If a bill is opposed by a majority of the majority party, it won't get a vote, even if, or especially if it has the support of the majority of legislators overall. Why not? Because the majority party uses procedural control to block consideration of bills it doesn't like.

There is, however, a workaround. It just doesn't work. It is called the discharge petition. If someone introduces a bill, and the majority party stymies it by, generally, locking it up in committee, supporters can circulate a discharge petition, and if that petition garners enough signatures to constitute a majority of the chamber, the Speaker is required to schedule a floor vote, under a closed rule. No amendments. It overrides the majority party's procedural control.

It hasn't worked since 2002 (that idiotic campaign finance reform bill that created all of the "dark money" that goo-goos blame, wrongly, on Citizens United). Why not? Parties will let you vote against them on substantive bills more frequently than on procedural stuff. Sign a discharge petition, and they'll come after you. You want that committee transfer? You like your first born? Don't sign that discharge petition. They'll leave the gun, but take the cannoli. (Don't you dare tell me I need to explain that one).

Discharge petitions rarely work.

Right now, immigration reform supporters are circulating a discharge petition in the House. Why? Well, if you go back to what I kept writing about Paul Ryan and immigration reform, you would notice that I kept saying he'd never under any circumstances allow a floor vote. He hasn't. So, the only way an immigration bill gets a vote is if the reformers manage to get 218 signatures on a discharge petition.

So, they have circulated one for a set of bills proposing a "queen of the hill" rule, meaning that among the set of bills (rather than one bill), the one garnering the most votes passes. Right now, 17 Republicans have signed it. They need 8 more. Will it happen?

Remember that no discharge petition has been successful in 16 years. Right now, Paul Ryan is rounding up the puppies of every conceivable GOP Representative who might sign that petition, and dangling them over the legislative process meat-grinder because this isn't even about immigration. Trump will veto this even if it passes Congress. This is about the party's control of legislative procedure. Even if a bill passes the House, and the Senate, and then gets vetoed by our mail-order bride schtupping, Mexicans-are-rapists, hero-to-David-Duke President, the fact of 218 would mean the party lost control of procedure.

And that can't happen.

Right now, behind the scenes, GOP leaders are using some combination of carrots and sticks to try to keep the number of signatures below 218. A bill is highly unlikely to become law. Remember, Trump is President. Right now, it's about a show of strength within the party to maintain procedural control. Discharge petitions haven't been successful for 16 years.

So, from the perspective of anyone thinking of signing now, why face party punishment if it won't influence policy because bald-orange David Duke would veto the bill even if it got through both chambers anyway?

Parties matter.

Here's some random Thursday music. David Lindley and Wally Ingram, with "Meatgrinder Blues," from Twango Bango III.