It looks like that discharge petition for the House immigration bill will get its 218 signatures, according to Roll Call. What does that mean?
1) It probably passes the House.
2) The Senate? Who knows? That doesn't matter, though, because...
3) Trump will veto anything. As the article mentions, Trump's demand is his stupid, fucking wall that Mexico was supposed to fund as a condition to sign anything, and that ain't gonna happen, so this is all posturing anyway. The political science term is "veto-bait."
4) I warned earlier that Ryan's failure on the farm bill could help push the discharge petition over the top by showing his weakness, and that was right around a week ago.
5) What does this mean for the building coup attempt against Ryan? I've been warning about that repeatedly. Ryan is in some serious trouble. If that immigration bill passes, without wall money, look for the Freedom Caucus to get their Boehners up and try to perform for their base again. The best case Ryan will be able to make is that Trump will veto it, but Trump might get pissed about the bill making it out of the House, and turn on him anyway. PredictIt currently has it at just over a coin toss that Ryan makes it through the year. My investment advice remains the same: well-diversified, passively-managed funds, but watch the timeline here.
On timeline matters, though, something to consider is that we are closing out the primary season. That means it isn't quite as important for the Freedom Caucu...asians(?), yeah, Freedom Caucasians to... perform for their base right now, and the value of kicking Ryan to the curb before 2019 is relatively low.
So, Ryan might be saved by the timeline. Still, this is bad for Paulie.
Richard Fenno wrote a book about the new Republican congressional majority after the 1994 election, and the observation that chaos ensued because the 40-year stretch of Democratic dominance meant that nobody in the GOP knew how to be a governing party. Least of all, Newton Leroy Gingrich.
Funny, but 24 years later, with only a four-year stretch of Democratic control between 2006 and 2010, the House GOP has gotten more inept. (John Boehner excepted, but they ran him out of town on a rail, which is part of my point).
How does that even work?
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