Stop listening to Donald Trump. And that's today's main point.
After canceling the summit, Trump now says it may be back on. What is going on? Trump can't even commit to talking. This shouldn't be a surprise since Trump can't commit to anyone or anything, and he lies about everything, but that's the point.
Who enforces contracts? If you sign a contract within the US-- taking out a loan, etc.-- the US government will enforce the contract. Basically, at gunpoint. Break the contract, and you face legal action. Fail to pay, and consequences escalate, but at the end of the process is that nice man in a uniform with a government-issued firearm enforcing the contract that you signed.
What about illegal contracts? Like the ones you make with the mob? OK, not you, personally, since I'm not casting aspersions, but people generally. Those things exist. Who enforces them? Leg-breakers. You know, like that creepy motherfucker that Cohen had go after Stormy Daniels to threaten her daughter. That's all about asymmetric strength.
Of course, asymmetric strength also means you can alter the deal.
Don't make deals with Darth Vader. He's stronger than you are, and he'll alter the deal. You can't fuckin' trust him.
And that's a broader point in international relations. Who enforces international agreements? My country tells your country we'll pay. We don't. You say, "pay." I say, "make me." Who makes me?
Nobody. Yeah, if enough countries get together to impose sanctions, that can hurt, but a) that's hard, and b) it takes a lot of countries to apply pressure successfully.
So, who enforces international agreements? Nobody.
That leaves two primary factors. First, there's asymmetric strength, and second, there's reputation.
Reputation matters a lot for presidents. Richard Neustadt's view of presidential power from the book of that title is basically that power is all about the president's ability to bargain, which is derived largely from reputation. A president's reputation is derived significantly from a history of sticking to agreements. Break your past agreements, and nobody will work with you because they know you'll stab them in the back.
The only way anyone makes a deal with Darth Vader, knowing that he'll betray them, is asymmetric strength. Does he have that? Yup. So, how do you counter that? Use Force... Nukes.
OK, that one sucked. I knew I was reaching for it, but my feet felt like they were stuck in ice.
Anyway, you don't need to be as strong. You just need to be strong enough. Having nukes doesn't make North Korea as strong as the US, but it gives them enough strength to deter an attack, and that's all they need.
Make an agreement with the US to give up their nukes, and a) nobody will enforce the US's side of it, b) Trump is a lying sack of shit, as are many of his compatriots, which means they can't be trusted to stick to "the deal," and c) if North Korea makes "the deal," they're open to attack.
Notice I kept putting, "the deal," in sarcastic quote marks. Trump fetishizes "the deal" without having any clue about policy, or even what deals truly are. There is no true deal here. There never has been, and there never will be. Trump thinks that being erratic makes him a brilliant negotiator. It just emphasizes that he can't even be trusted on whether or not to meet and talk, and that undercuts any shred of credibility he may have had at the bargaining table, which wasn't much given that he is the most craven liar in political history. He makes North Korean state propaganda look honest.
Lying worked to get him where he is because voters in this country are unfathomably stupid. The problem is that Kim Jong Un, like every other world leader, is far smarter than Donald Trump. None of them are stupid enough to believe a word out of his mouth. They know that everything he says is a lie, and he emphasizes the fact that nobody can trust him when he pulls stupid antics like the on-again-off-again summit crap.
Will the summit happen? I don't know, and I don't care. Donald Trump is incompetent. I'd rather have President Camacho.