1. A year ago, I wrote this, basically saying that Kennedy should retire. Strategically, it was obviously the right move. Sticking around until the last moment he could guarantee a Republican Senate to confirm a replacement was perfect strategy. Anthony Kennedy was thinking about the implications of his choices for the future. That's what smart people do.
2. The other part of that previous post was the contrast of my Kennedy semi-prediction with Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She could have stepped down under Reid's post-nuclear Democratic Senate and easily had a like-minded replacement confirmed, but she was too oblivious to understand what Reid's partial nuclear option meant, so she stuck around, and now she'll probably die with Trump in the White House. Ginsburg is a fool. If you are a liberal, you should detest her for her cluelessness and narcissism. Those traits are going to leave you, in all likelihood, with either a 6-3 conservative majority that lasts for years, or at best, a 5-3 majority if the Democrats can scrape out a Senate majority in 2018*, but even then, unless the economy tanks, Trump wins in 2020 anyway. Ginsburg is not smart, and like I said, liberals really should hate her for not doing what Kennedy is smart enough to do now. If you are a Ginsburg-worshipping liberal reading this, and getting pissed off at me, ask yourself this question. Suppose Ginsburg dies with Trump in the White House. It is more than a reasonable likelihood given her age and cancer. Suppose, further, that the GOP has at least Pence breaking a tie in the Senate, and Trump appoints some Federalist Society-type to replace her, and I remind you that she could have been replaced by some mini-Ginsburg if she had just swallowed her pride back in 2014, with Reid extending the nuclear option. Are you still going to have fond memories of her? A 5-4 conservative majority can flip. 6-3? That's harder. I'm crass and cold-blooded. You know what else I am? Correct.
3. Of course, the 5-vote conservative majority was inevitable once Comey handed the White House to Trump, and given McConnell's stunt back in 2016 blockading Scalia's seat. Anthony Kennedy's retirement was going to move the Court to the right, and Ginsburg couldn't have stopped that. All she could have done is prevent further slippage.
4. Roe v. Wade is probably toast. Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch are going to be champing at the bit for a case to overturn it. Trump doesn't care, unless he has to abort a mistress's little "oopsie" because, come on, he probably has, and he'll just go with some right-wing Federalist Society pick. Roberts would never, under any circumstances, strike down an abortion restriction, so the only question is whether or not he would actually overturn Roe v. Wade, but realistically, come on. He will. Kennedy was the only real hold-out among the conservative block, and with him gone, replacing him with a Federalist Society pick will put the court over the edge for a Roe v. Wade overturn.
5. For anyone who rejects the attitudinal model, and says that Justices only rule on constitutional interpretation, or something like that, care to place a wager on how Kennedy's replacement will vote on abortion restrictions? I'll place my bet now, not even knowing who it will be.
*Current betting at PredictIt gives the GOP more than a 2-to-1 edge for retaining the Senate.
