Are Democratic incumbents getting primaried from the left now?

The big headline from yesterday's elections was Rep. Joe Crowley's (D-NY) loss to a moonbat*, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  Weird things happen.  This was a weird thing.  The incumbent lost.  On rare occasions, that happens.  The Republican Party has been shifting ever-rightward at least partially out of an overblown fear of primary challenges, which are based on a few anecdotes rather than actually serious threats.  Incumbents are safe, particularly in primaries.  They are less likely to lose primaries than they are to lose general elections, and centrists are more likely to win general elections than extremists.  See, for example, Canes-Wrone, Brady & Cogan's 2002 APSR article, or Walter Stone's new book.  If incumbents move away from the center out of a misplaced fear of primaries, they are making strategic mistakes.  D or R, it's a strategic mistake.  Crowley lost.  If the Democratic Party does what the GOP has been doing, and acts like there is vast leftward pressure from primaries on the basis of an anecdote, well, at least we'd have symmetric stupidity.


*Remember that rightwing wackos are called "wingnuts," and leftwing wackos are called, "moonbats."  Technical, political science jargon.  Get your insults straight.

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