So, gone is the Appalachian Trail aficionado, Mark Sanford. He lost a primary this week. And, just to twist the knife like a ..., Katie Arrington actually said, "bless his heart," about Sanford when she won. Yeah, she actually said that. Fuck her. Seriously, fuck her. "Bless your heart" is way worse than anything I ever say. Why? Because it pretends to be civil and polite and all that fuckin' bullshit while actually being condescending as all fucking hell. Vileness in the extreme. Nora Jemisin has a term for this: "weaponized politeness." People who actually say shit like this... just... fuck them. I really hate the kind of people who say, "bless your heart." They're the absolute worst. (OK, Donald Trump is the absolute worst, but people who say, "bless your heart" are up there).
Now, let's get this out of the way. Mark Sanford is no moderate. On the NOMINATE scale, his current score is .697. That's based on re-centered scores partially computed for the current Congress. For reference, using the same data set, I've got that goober, Louie Gohmert at .597. Get me? Mark Sanford-- not moderate. Why do I say this? Because there is a common storyline, popular among journalists and the commentariat, about an ideological purge in the GOP such that moderates lose their primaries. It's a false story, built around a small number of anecdotes because most people never look at the big picture with aggregate data (hey, that's a common theme on this blog!), but it is a story to address. Anyway, though, Sanford is no moderate.
Still, that reference is worth making. There is ideological variation within the GOP House and Senate delegations. They have shifted way right, but there is variation. What most people fail to understand, though, is that despite the variation, practically nobody loses a primary unless they have been redistricted, or something like that. Remember the paradox of news, as I call it. What gets news attention does so because it is unusual, which makes you think, falsely, that it is normal. Dick Lugar, and a couple of others, lost their primaries for being insufficiently conservative. That made people think that there was a big ideological purge going on, and moderates were in serious danger of losing their primaries. Nope. Dick Lugar's loss was a story because it was so weird, even though he was to the left of most of his caucus, relatively speaking.
The problem, though, is in applying this to Sanford. How many Republicans in Congress, or nationally visible in any way, criticize Trump? There is variation in Republican congressional ideology. We can measure it with NOMINATE scores. How much variation is there in the extent to which national Republicans criticize Trump? While up for reelection?
There's the problem. The only ones willing to criticize him at all are the ones retiring or dying. No, I'm not going to do the rituals of whatever for McCain. The Keating Five tontine will just go to either Don Riegle or Dennis DeConcini. Death zing! Anyway, we have a sample problem. "Liddle" Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, Charles Keating's buddy, John McCain... they're all on their way out. They won't face a primary after criticizing their Dear Leader, who has a... preferred method of dealing with anyone who doesn't kiss his fuckin' ass.
So, how do we assess this? Out of the very small sample of legislators willing to criticize Trump and face reelection, they don't do so well. What does that mean? Statistically, I can't say anything. I don't make inferences from samples this small.
However, it will reenforce the absolute, abject terror that Republicans in Congress have of Donald Trump. From a scholarly perspective, the actual threat that primaries pose to Republicans in Congress is generally quite weak. However, none of them can do math. What they can do is spell, D-I-C-K. They think about dick all the time. It's really all they think about. Just, dick, dick, dick, dick, dick. Lugar, I mean. I'm not saying congressional Republicans are just secretly gay, and covering it up with a bunch of hyper-masculine, homophobic bullshit. Not all of them, I mean. Anyway, my point is that they spend a lot of time thinking about dick. LUGAR, I mean. So, they get scared. Irrationally so, because they blow an anecdote out of proportion, and think it is a bigger threat than it really is. (Hmmm... that's a theme on this blog, isn't it?)
Mark Sanford. He criticized Trump, and now his heart is blessed. (Fuck you, Katie Arrington). Any last remaining shred of will to criticize Trump will vanish into the ether among a party with no willpower, no courage, and no capacity to do math. Then again, this is at least a stronger case because the small sample of legislators running for reelection after criticizing Trump means it isn't intrinsically the wrong inference.
Anyway, the lesson here is clear. Don't name your children, "Richard." You're just giving fodder to juvenile people like me.