Trump's polling numbers are remarkably stable, all things considered. I normally link to Gallup here, and as you can see, Trump's approval dipped below the 40% mark for a time, but mostly has been in a steady range, currently just north of that 40% mark at 43%. It is worth noting that Gallup recently changed their polling methodology to a weekly tracking, so I think I will do a little more comparison with RealClearPolitics, which uses polling averages (I'm a big fan of that). Cropping of the graph and lack of smoothing makes the changes look more dramatic there, and there are some slightly bigger swings, but the low of 37.3% in December of last year with RealClearPolitics matches a low of 35% with Gallup around then. This is still range-bound, compared to what you see from the other presidents, which is what you can do with the Gallup interactive. What you don't see at Gallup is the movement in the disapproval numbers.
With an economy that is booming, a president shouldn't have approval ratings this low, but with scandals of this scale, a president shouldn't have approval ratings this high. What's going on? There is no mystery here, and I have been writing, for a long time, that Trump's support is necessarily range-bound. Trump's partisans will never abandon him. Many support him because they adore his racism, and the rest are locked in a bizarre relationship in which the other Republican leaders refuse to separate themselves from Trump out of fear of punishment by Republican voters, which solidifies Trump's support, guaranteeing that they can't confront him on anything. Democrats' opposition is baked in, and Trump is so obviously scum that independents, few though they are, have a hard time backing him. The result is that Trump's support fluctuates around 40%. As it has. Predictably.
And that's less movement than we are used to seeing, because with Trump, everything is already baked in. There is nothing new to learn. Well, we can still learn exactly how deep the corruption goes, we can still learn how many women he has sexually assaulted, how many his lawyer has paid to silence, and so forth, but Trump has never pretended to be a decent human being. I have referenced Terry Pratchett's Going Postal several times before, so here's another character from that one. Reacher Gilt. Reacher Gilt goes out of his way to dress like a pirate, and act like a pirate. He is a business raider who marvels that he does everything possible to show everyone, in the bright light of day, that he is an untrustworthy villain, and people are still stupid enough to trust him. Reacher Gilt is actually smart, making him distinguishable from Trump, but the connection to Trump here is obvious. Trump does everything possible to show people that he is scum, including bragging about his ability to get away with sexual assault. He practically stood on stage and told the world that he was Putin's "asset," in intelligence terms, and there is a core of people who still love him, and would probably sacrifice their first born children to him. He is Reacher Gilt, with brain damage. Or, rather, a lot of the American people are even dumber than the people of Ankh-Morpork, dumb enough to trust someone as obviously sleazy as Reacher Gilt, but with less intelligence.
And yet, there are enough that, with an economy booming, Trump still can't get his poll... numbers up.
So, Trump's toast, right?
Not so fast. Remember that, in 2016, the economy was growing at a healthy pace, polling showed that most voters knew Trump to be unqualified for the presidency, and he won anyway (please don't pull that "popular vote" crap with me). Trump's approval numbers in the 2016 race were lower than Clinton's. This was the core weakness in the argument made by the Bernie people, still whining about how the Democrats should have nominated he-who-walks-on-bong-water. Supposedly, Clinton lost because her negatives were too high. Problem: Trump's negatives were higher than Clinton's, and he won anyway. Translation: those things aren't as important as you think.
Of course, Trump's numbers matter more now that he actually is the President. Yeah, this is weird. Presidential approval matters even when the actual president isn't on the ballot, but candidate approval numbers don't. Why? Fuck if I know. How can light be a particle and a wave? Why does time slow down when you are near a gravitational source? How can subatomic particles behave according to probabilistic laws rather than deterministic ones? To borrow from Neil deGrasse Tyson, "the universe is under no obligation to make sense to you." Or me. What matters even more than presidential approval, though? The economy, and the fact that the GOP won't be facing a two-terms-in-a-row penalty. So, yes, Trump's approval ratings are oddly stable. This is very strange, all things considered. What's going on? His supporters are blind partisans, who can't be reached by the facts of the scandals. Democrats would oppose any Republican president anyway, and Trump's basic vileness makes it impossible for him to appeal to anyone who isn't his base. This has been obvious since the beginning. It also matters less than the economy.
Reacher Gilt-with-brain damage is President. Welcome to Ankh-Morpork. Vetinari? Little help here?