1) Yes, the 2020 presidential contest is currently underway. Get over it.
2) That said, ignore the current polls. They just pick up name recognition. For obvious reasons, Biden has name recognition.
3) That said, in 2016, I began this blog because of a phenomenon that I called "Trump denialism," which was denial of Trump's chances at the 2016 Republican nomination, and what that meant for how we interpret elections. I wised up before the rest of political science because there is a point at which you have to start paying attention to the polls. Trump took an early lead in the polls and just never lost it. His early lead looked like name recognition in polls to be discounted. The point at which we transition to treating a lead as real was... difficult to recognize, but at least I get to say I recognized it before most of the discipline.
4) Right now, Biden's lead is bullshit. Will it hold? There is no lead to hold. I won't even say with any confidence that he'll really run. Is he testing the waters? Sure, but that's about all. Dude's old and past his prime. There is a point at which polls matter. When, precisely? I don't know, but I do know we aren't there yet.
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