So, how's the economy doing? Q3 GDP numbers came in at 3.5% growth! That economy just keeps chugging along! And as I have written a few times before, that's more because capitalism works than because politicians (e.g. the president) have taken direct, specific actions to maintain it. Empirically, voters reward or punish incumbents for the state of the economy. 'Cuz it's a fuckin' shark. And someone's buying bigger boats. And, they're buying the boats because of the shark, not the tax cut.
Yes, elections turn mainly on things that are outside of politicians' control, and that means "accountability" is kind of a joke. Sometimes, though, it works better than others, or at least, less badly. When the Democrats passed an unpopular healthcare bill, they lost a lot of seats, and research by Brendan Nyhan et al. ("One Vote Out Of Step?" published in American Politics Research, 2012) showed that, yes, Obamacare played a big part. Whether or not you liked the bill is not the point. Pass an unpopular bill and lose seats? That's accountability.
Of course, the economy was a lot weaker in 2010, and that's kind of where things diverge. Right now, the economy is strong enough that it may not matter how many sleazy things Trump or congressional Republicans have done. And that matters because it would mean that they would be unconstrained by any fears going forward.
Let's say you've been caught lying, cheating, and worse, but your bosses tell you, for whatever reason, don't worry. They've got your back. What happens next? Accountability matters. Consequences matter. The Senate is basically a lock for the GOP, but the House has a wide range of possibilities. If the House flipped, that wouldn't stop the GOP from confirming judges, and it wouldn't stop a policy agenda, because they don't have much of one, except more tax cuts, but they kind of shot their wad on that one too. You'd get a second round of cuts if they maintained the House, smaller in magnitude, but that's about it, in all likelihood. Mostly, the next two years will be two years of executive actions regardless. However, it would be a punishment for the GOP to lose the House, and likewise, not losing the House would not be a punishment, reinforcing every crooked and dishonest thing the party has done leading up to this point.
Voters aren't very good at imposing consequences for the right things, though. They blame incumbents for shark attacks. And they may reward the GOP for a booming economy, even though the economy has been growing steadily for a decade.
What gets reinforced in a world without consequences? I have a bit more to say on this.
