Let's go through what has happened, in very brief form, because of that appointment. Flynn had to be fired. He went up in flames like tissue paper soaked in kerosene. James Comey, as Director of the FBI, wouldn't back off because of Flynn's Russia connections, despite Trump's attempts to obstruct justice. Trump fired Comey. That led to the appointment of Mueller, the charges against some schlub named Papadopoulos, but more importantly, Manafort, Gates, Cohen... Flynn, and ongoing investigations into Trump himself and other members of his inner circle. None of this would be happening if Trump hadn't been so fucking stupid as to appoint Flynn as NSA, against the advice of the Feds, who told Trump that Flynn was compromised before the appointment was made. Also, Flynn was clearly a crackpot anyway, but... that's why Trump liked him, which is kind of a major problem in and of itself, but also not the real point here.
So basically, when I gave Trump an F for his appointment of Flynn back on March 1, 2017, I was probably being too lenient. Trump should have been kicked out of school on the basis of clearly fraudulent test scores because no one even marginally literate would have handed in an assignment like that. He just shouldn't have been admitted in the first place. Dude. What the fuck?!
(Side note: He brags all the time about having graduated from Wharton, but you know he didn't get into Wharton, right? He transferred from Fordham after Daddy bought his way in because he couldn't get into Penn out of high school.)
And now, we learn that while Manafort has violated his agreement with Mueller by lying (and sharing information with Donny) in order to try to weasel his way to a pardon...
Flynn? Oh, Donny. Wow, did you fuck up with that guy. Beyond what I ever could have imagined. Mueller is advising no jail time? Nothin'? Squat? Zilch? Nada? O... K... then. Dumbest. Appointment. Ever.
And here's where I admit fault. My assessments of Flynn's position were based on the notion that he'd be safe because Trump would just pardon him. He'd keep his mouth shut, get pardoned, and be fine. Manafort double-crossed Mueller, trying to fake cooperation while still feeding information to Trump, but Flynn is Henry Hill? OK. Didn't see that coming.
I was wrong, and rather than bury that in the hope that anyone forgets it, I'm going to shine a light on it, and assess where I went wrong here. Intellectual honesty is a thing.
Mueller offered Flynn certainty. Trump's potential pardon was an uncertain thing. Flynn, strangely enough, acted rationally. (Crazy people often don't). Here's how I think it played out, given our current lack of information about what, specifically, Flynn gave Mueller.
Mueller couldn't go after Flynn first. You start at lower levels, and work your way up. This is a mob prosecution. You get lower level people to flip on higher level people, and trap the higher level people into flipping on The Don. So to speak. Mueller got Papadopoulos, and whoever else early on. He built up whatever he needed to have a rock-solid case against Flynn, which wasn't that hard because... holy shit, is Flynn guilty. The thing is, most of what Flynn provably did is lower-level stuff rather than treason. Once Mueller had enough to guarantee conviction under any circumstance short of lunatic on the jury (which... happens), he went to Flynn and said something like the following:
"Look, Mr. Hill, give me everything you have, and I'll advise no prison time. Repeat, no prison time. You serve no jail time at all, if you roll over completely. Or, here's what you did, and here's your prison sentence. You can go away, and hope for a presidential pardon, and maybe Trump grants it, and maybe he doesn't, but my way is safer. You never see the inside of a jail cell, and never have to sit around waiting for Trump to make that call. How much do you trust him, and how much do you trust me?"
Trump is a lying, backstabbing shitbag who doesn't care about anyone other than himself. Would he have granted that pardon? Eventually, probably. Let Flynn get convicted, wait some period of time, let Fox News build the drum beat of right-wing rage, do some campaign-style rallies, and then, maybe after the 2020 election, pardon the guy. Maybe before, but there would have been a high likelihood of some prison time, and the possibility of Trump stabbing him in the back because he's Trump. He's a sociopath. Don't put your fate in the hands of a sociopath if you don't have to.
Mueller was offering no jail time. And here's the difference with Manafort. Manafort did so much that Mueller couldn't promise him that. So, Manafort tried a double-cross, got caught lying to Mueller, is losing his deal, and who knows what happens with him now? Flynn, though?
I didn't see him flipping on Trump, but I didn't see the no-jail-time offer. That's what's critical here. Trump has a pardon to offer, but with Trump, there's always uncertainty because he is disloyal, sleazy and batshit crazy. And even if he weren't, you wait for the pardon until the opportune moment. Mueller just had more to offer because Flynn's crimes versus the information he had meant the better deal came from flipping.
It is worth remembering, though, that everything that is tearing apart Trump's administration goes back to the appointment of Michael Flynn as NSA. I think it may have been the single dumbest thing any president has ever done. Ever.
Flynn was compromised, and Trump knew it. He was told not to make Flynn NSA. He did it anyway. He fired Flynn, only after it became too embarrassing. Then, he fired Comey for investigating Flynn, and other Russia-related matters, leading to the appointment of Mueller, who then gets Flynn, himself, to flip on Trump.
Gaze in horror as "stupidity" is redefined, right before our very eyes!