Shutdowns don't work. The threat of a default via debt ceiling breach got Obama to give the GOP a lot back in 2011 because Obama was a fool, and that foolish move reinforced an impulse towards hostage-taking in politics, but "shutdowns?" They don't work. Not even for Nancy Pelosi. If they did, DACA would have been reinstated last year, and Trump wouldn't have been able to dangle it as a potential offer for his silly wall.
If they don't work, the only question is this: how long before the side that makes the demand realizes that they are losing, and gives up? (With the caveat here that Trump has the option of the phony "emergency declaration," but I'll get to that.) The GOP usually went about three weeks or so. Pelosi's little stunt last year? Between both her shutdown and Schumer's in two separate waves, you can still measure the total length of time in hours without much difficulty.
Trump decided he wanted the record, because his has to be the biggest. That's... not how it's supposed to work, but oh, our Donny.
What's going on here? Well, remember the basic game theory that I have reviewed several times. One of the ways to think about shutdown games is with a repeated game like brinksmanship or war of attrition. In these classic games, what happens is two players each have the capacity to either quit, or keep going, with costs piling up, either depleting a pool of resources, or increasing the probability of some disaster. One side has the capacity to play for longer, either because of a bigger pool of resources, or more tolerance for risk. In a fully-rational model, what happens is that the player who can't play as long just has to quit as soon as possible. Why pay any cost when you know you can't go as far down the game tree?
Pelosi? She's usually pretty smart. She screwed up last year on DACA, but she realized her mistake faster than anyone else, so I'll at least give her credit for that. Dumb move, but fast correction. The GOP usually needs about three weeks to figure out how badly they have screwed up. To be fair, some in the party always know their shutdowns are stupid. McConnell, for example. He never wants to do this. He just gets dragged along by the illiterates in his party, realizing that his institutional power is best maintained by indulging them rather than making futile attempts to teach those less gifted individuals how to read. But, the timing comparison is a measurement.
And then there's Donny. He's... slow. There was never a chance of Pelosi caving, but Donny is about two beats short of a waltz. Sort of a one-note guy, if you catch the tune I'm humming. Why yesterday specifically? I don't know that I have any insight beyond other commentators, but I do point out the difference in how long it took him to get to the same conclusion as every other fool who ever shut down the government for a demand that wasn't going to be met.
Now, the emergency declaration. I've been telling you for weeks that this is what happens. I still think that's true. Donny just got humiliated, and Donny hates that. Either lie and say there's a national emergency, or just cave and show himself to be weak. Those were always his options. Now, knowing Donny, what does he do? Lie versus look weak...
There is already clamoring among the very people who pushed him into the shutdown, like Ann Coulter. In fact, it makes sense to sign a spending bill before the declaration, strategically. Once he pulls that stunt, he risks having the House rescind something. So, get spending through Congress, then pull the emergency declaration stunt. Afterwards.
I still think this is happening, and Trump has said so, directly. No wall money from Congress, and he declares a national emergency. He'll just do it after the rest of this process plays out. Given what an aggressive move it is, wait until the end. However, to save face, Trump has to use the emergency declaration, and remember that that's all this was about anyway.
Dumbest shutdown ever.
