The obligatory reference here is John Gilmour's Strategic Disagreement. Whenever we have a stalemate, this is the book you need to go back and read or re-read. Some of you have probably had this book inflicted on you (by me) anyway. Key concept: the zone of agreement. Is there a range of policies that both sides would accept?
In this case, no. There is no "zone of agreement" between Trump and Pelosi, for several reasons. First, "the wall." Yeah, I'll still use the occasional quote marks for that. Anyway, for Trump, he needs to demand it because he was bullied into demanding it by conservative media types. Precisely because of that, Pelosi can't give it to him. It's the whole "we don't negotiate with terrorists" approach, and yes, Trump is what John Boehner once called Jim Jordan: "a legislative terrorist." If Trump's central requirement is "the wall" and Pelosi's central requirement is no wall, there's no zone of agreement. Of course, it's a little more complicated than that because as we learned from the transcript of Trump's phone call to Nieto, Trump doesn't give a shit about the wall. Why is he doing this? To look tough. To make Democrats cave. So, Democrats can't cave. That still means no zone of agreement. Just definitionally so.
What does Gilmour predict when there is no zone of agreement? A process called encroachment. So, here's the setup. One party has an advantage in terms of public opinion. There's no zone of agreement, though. The disadvantaged party has a problem. You don't want to look like an asshole who isn't trying to reach a compromise, but there's no compromise you'd accept, and the public is already against you. What do you do? You start making phony gestures towards compromise, which won't be accepted, but just to make it look like you are trying, even though it won't lead anywhere. When you do that, Gilmour calls it "encroachment."
That's what just happened. Trump is on the losing side of public opinion, according to every poll. Partly, his position is a bullshit position, and partly, he's just so obviously a racist that it makes it hard for anyone other than people like David Duke to take his side. But, there's no zone of agreement. So, what happens? Encroachment. His offer to Democrats was bullshit.
So, here's the deal. Remember how I unilaterally eliminated DACA protections? How about this? I'll give you back some weak, temporary DACA protections if you give me my fucking wall! (Which I lied about, and said Mexico would fund...) And you have to trust me to keep my word on enforcement, 'cuz I'm clearly and honest guy (even though I lied about that whole Mexico-paying-for-the-wall thing)! I wrote about this precise issue a week ago. The reason Trump can't engage in this kind of bargaining is that his reputation is for shit. Democrats know he's a lying scumbag who can't be trusted to keep his word on anything, so they can't negotiate with him under normal circumstances, much less while a government shutdown is underway. Trump's constant lying makes it impossible for him to be what he constantly claims to be-- a "deal-maker." He can con the rubes because rubes are, by definition, stupid, but Nancy Pelosi is smarter than he is. By so much that he can't grasp the scale of the difference. Even Dunning and Kruger themselves could never imagine a case like Donald J. Trump.
So what now? The problem with trying encroachment at this point is that Trump so loudly proclaimed his desire for a shutdown, so many times, and is so obviously an asshole that it is hard for anyone not drinking the Trump Kool-Aid to come to any conclusion other than that Trump is the idiotic asshole responsible for this mess. And that brings us back to Pelosi. She can't negotiate with the terrorist. You don't pay the ransom. If you do, it never ends, and that's a big part of why this is happening now.
So let's keep that in mind. You may have read thought-pieces wondering about the timing. The Republican House and Senate never wanted to play these stupid games, and Trump never got into it with them. Then, a changeover in control of the House, and prodded by conservative media figures, Trump pulls this shutdown stunt before Pelosi even gets the gavel. Why? Why now?
Because if it works, the Democrats have to keep caving. Remember the game of "chicken," as specified in game theory. Two players, each driving towards each other. They simultaneously decide whether to drive or swerve. If one player swerves and the other drives, the "chicken" loses 10 utils, and the tough guy gains 10 utils. If they both swerve, they both lose 5 utils. If they both drive, they both die. They both lose, call it infinity utils.
There are two "Nash equilibria" to the game. Player 1 drives while Player 2 swerves, and Player 1 swerves while Player 2 drives. If Player 1 is driving, then Player 2 can't do better by deviating from the "swerve" strategy because switching from a strategy of "swerve" to "drive" would mean dying, and getting "negative infinity" rather than -10 utils. So, Player 2 has no incentive to deviate. Similarly, given that Player 2 is swerving, Player 1 has no incentive to deviate. If Player 1 switched, that would mean getting -5 rather than +10. That'd be stupid. So, there are two Nash equilibria-- the drive/swerve combinations. The problem is... which do we observe?
What about in repeated games? If you swerve in round 1, you bet your fucking ass your opponent is driving thereafter. So you need to keep swerving. Repeated games make the first round determinative for the rest of the interactions. You need to make the other player swerve, or you lose thereafter.
Every fucking asshole mindless wannabe centrist dipshit pundit who says that Pelosi should just give Trump his wall because the economic damage of the shutdown has surpassed the cost of the wall...
Do the fucking math, people. It's not just the wall. It's everything he demands in every subsequent round of chicken. That's why Pelosi can't cave. The first round is the only round that really matters. That's why Trump is doing this now, and that's why Pelosi can't cave. It's not just the wall. It's the concept of not governing by shutdown, chicken and terrorism, and everything put at stake when a president can govern as a "legislative terrorist," as Boehner called Jordan.
Anyway, that's what's going on here. All of this means that neither side can afford to cave. What does this mean? Bullshit emergency declaration. Pelosi can't cave. Trump can't cave. The bullshit emergency declaration is the only process that ends the shutdown with neither side caving, unless enough Republicans join Pelosi to override a Trump veto. I've written about that a few times before, but Trump would call that a national emergency.
Buckle up. I hate stupid drivers.
