However, the Census was an interesting matter. There is a constitutional directive to conduct a head-count every 10 years, with nothing in the Constitution about counting citizens versus noncitizens. Is there value to knowing that? Yes, but the Trump administration's decision to add a citizenship question was a clear attempt to induce an undercount among the Latino population, fearful of responding at all if they were not citizens. Noncitizen legal residents may have felt threatened and not responded, and there is a constitutional directive to count them, even before getting into the tangled matter of illegal aliens. Moreover, the Department of Commerce flat-out lied throughout the process about why they planned to include the question.
So, the Supreme Court called bullshit in DoC v. New York. The Department of Commerce then indicated that they would print the Census forms without the citizenship question, and Trump... being Trump, started shooting his mouth off about how he would find a way to add the citizenship question.
And... then he gave up. Sure, he's trying to pretend that he has won a total victory, but that's because he's Trump, and a lying, little twerp. He caved. Completely. Like a weakling. That little spectacle of a news conference? Nope. No insecurity there! Can't imagine what the UK Ambassador was thinking! (And do I need to reiterate any of my past comments about Barr? When it comes to integrity, no flunky has ever flunked harder than that flunk-wit.)
What happened? He had several options. Try again with the courts on short order and lose because, as his lawyers told him, he had no chance given DoC v. New York, and the courts kept telling him that even trying to bring in a new legal team to... whitewash his rationalizations wasn't an option. Or defy the Supreme Court.
Or the wave form remains uncollapsed! Remember that superposition stuff? This is what I was rambling about. Lord, I was born I ramblin' man! From physics to the Allman Brothers. This is why I have a blog.
Anywho, have we gotten to the point that Trump could defy the Supreme Court? Um... don't know. He hasn't done it! Does he think he can? There are actually two plausible explanations here.
1) Trump doesn't believe that the system has degraded yet to the point that he can simply tell the Supreme Court to stick it where sun don't shine. (Try "Soulshine. Better than sunshine. Better than moonshine. Damn sure better than rain." As long as I'm doing the Allman Brothers this morning, in my opinion, this was actually their best line-up-- Derek Trucks, Warren Haynes and Oteil Burbridge. Ain't heresy fun?) Two universes. Universe 1: The political system would permit Trump to ignore the Supreme Court on the Census because, blah, blah, invasion of f'rners, and "they t'k 'r jobs!" Universe 2: The political system would not permit Trump to ignore a Supreme Court order... not yet, anyway, because what is this, bizarro-world?!
Um, yes, but that doesn't mean he can get away with defying the Supreme Court. (Yet.)
Are we in Universe 1, or Universe 2? According to superposition, sloppily applied by a not-physicist who just kinda vaguely remembers this stuff from reading Scientific American so why the hell are you going by me?, but anyway, according to superposition, we can't know until Trump defies the Supreme Court because Universes 1 and 2 are superimposed on each other, and they don't branch off until Trump actually does defy the Supreme Court.
And he didn't! Universes 1 and 2 are still superimposed.
But, if he thinks we're in Universe 2, he doesn't do it, and...
You know, this is why the whole superposition thing isn't really about macro-level events. It's about subatomic particles that aren't acting in expectation of what universe they inhabit. This metaphor really does break down if you pick it apart too much, but I'm having fun with it.
Anyway, there's another option.
2) No gain. The 2020 Census, even if affected by a citizenship question, wouldn't help Trump in 2020 because it wouldn't affect the electoral college map until 2024. It could affect the 2022 midterm elections, but for that to matter, Trump first has to deal with 2020, and defying the Supreme Court might hurt his 2020 prospects even if he can manage it, so defying the Supreme Court in 2019 based on the hope that it would help the 2022 House map just doesn't make any strategic sense at this point.
That doesn't mean that the impulsive, idiot child wouldn't do it, but it means he'd have advisors pointing this out to him. Here's the pitch. Focus on 2020. Let those losers in the House worry about their own campaigns. That's their problem. They're on their own. Don't stick your neck out for them. Be selfish.
Now be honest. Don't you think that'd work on Trump?
So, are we at a point at which Trump could defy the Supreme Court? The Census is actually a poor test case because Trump, personally, has nothing at stake.
On the other hand, if the Supreme Court told him he had to hand his taxes over to Jerry Nadler or Richard Neal, what do you think he'd do? That might change the calculus, mightn't it? Until then, we ride the wave form, uncollapsed as it is.
Meow.
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