DNYZ: The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
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Update #1: The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths (The New York Times)
Update #2: Worst-case coronavirus scenario: 214 million Americans infected, 1.7 million dead (MIT Technology Review)
WNU Editor: A very sobering read.
