With pre-election jitters set to dominate markets, the other highlights include the ECB and BoJ meetings on Thursday. With regards to the former, DB's Jim Reid writes that while the bank's European economists expect the policy stance to be left unchanged, they do expect the ECB to warn of growing downside risks amid an already weak outlook for inflation, which will open the door to an easing of policy in December. By then, there’ll be more information on the status of the pandemic, and the ECB staff will have updated their macroeconomic projections, including the publication of the first estimates for growth and inflation for 2023. For the BoJ, consensus expects no policy stance change in light of the slow-but steady economic recovery and stable exchange rate.
Elsewhere, datawise next week we’ll get a first look at Q3 GDP in the US and Europe and given the record contractions seen in Q2, it’s quite possible that the Q3 numbers will be among the best ever quarterly performances since records began. Economists forecast an eye watering +33.8% as an example which, if realized, would be by far the strongest quarterly growth number since comparative data starts back in the 1940s.
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WNU Editor: Even though the numbers that will be posted will still be below pre-pandemic levels, expect President Trump to tout these numbers till election day.
