This is the most important chart of the 2020 election:
* Trump starts with a less-stable base
* But 216 of 535 Electoral College votes are too close to call
* Let that sink in: 40% of Electoral College votes appear too close to conclusively call as of today
* Even if we assume that states with only a 2% or greater spread are set, 66 Electoral College votes are up-for-grabs
* 2% spread is well within margins of error – it’s really a toss-up
* Sentiment analysis suggests Biden may squeak by
* But swing states are really toss-ups and targeted action can drastically change this race
Our methodology is very different from a traditional pollster:
* We utilize our proprietary consumer demand sentiment technology to elucidate trends in specific interests, much as we would measure brand activity
* In 2016 our models suggested an 80% chance that Donald Trump would win the general election versus Hillary Clinton
* Our models currently predict a much tighter race than in 2020
* However, the spreads are tighter in key states and public opinion is far more volatile in 2020 than in 2016
Read more ....
WNU Editor: I like their methodology. It is very different from how polls are being done today. They gave Donald Trump an 80% probability of winning in 2016, and in this election cycle they are predicting a very tight race. These results however are already out of date. They are from last week, and IMHO a lot has changed on the ground since then (i.e. President Trump's performance in the debate, Hunter Biden, etc.).
