Even vaccinating 100 percent of the population with Pfizer's 95% effective shot (green) would leave the transmission rate of the 'super-covid' variant from the UK above zero, while less effective shots like Oxford's (red and blue) would fail to drive the R number below 1, at which point the pandemic would be considered 'stable'
* Higher transmission rate of the UK 'super-covid' variant could drive up the number of people who need to be vaccinated in order for a population to reach herd immunity
* US health officials say between 75% and 90% of the population need to be vaccinated for US herd immunity
* Vaccines are not 100% effective, so a more infectious variant could spread more quickly from people who got a less effective shot that did not work
* University of East Anglia researchers estimate that the new UK variant raises the R number, or transmission rate by about 56%
* At that rate, 80% of the US population needs to get Moderna's or Pfizer's shot for the pandmeic to be stable
* But even vaccinating 100% of the population, including kids, would not drive transmission down to zero
* Vaccinating even 100% of the population with Oxford's 70% effective shot could not drive transmission of the new variant that is already dominant there down to one - the 'stable' threshold
* Only 5.2% of the US population has gotten a first dose of coronavirus vaccine; President Biden aims for 100 million vaccinations in 100 days
Even vaccinating 100 percent of the population may not be enough to eradicate COVID-19 once 'super-covid' variants become dominant in the US, a new study suggests.
The emergence of more infectious variants means that each new case could lead to a greater number of additional cases.
As a result, vaccines - even the most effective ones - may not be able to outpace the rate of transmission.
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WNU Editor: I am confident that with time this pandemic will burn itself out. But the above post outlines a nightmare scenario that we all better hope does not happen.
