At a military parade in Moscow, August 2021. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters
Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Foreign Affairs: The Myth of Russian Decline
Why Moscow Will Be a Persistent Power
The Biden administration came into office with a clear and unambiguous foreign policy priority: countering a rising China. The administration’s public statements, its early national security planning documents, and its initial diplomatic forays have all suggested that pushing back against Beijing’s growing global influence will be Washington’s national security focus, alongside transnational threats such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The question of how to deal with Russia, by contrast, has taken a back seat, returning to the fore only when Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s border in April. That crisis served as a reminder of the danger of looking past Moscow—yet by July, President Joe Biden was back to declaring that Russia was “sitting on top of an economy that has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else.”
Biden is not the first American leader to think along these lines. Ever since the end of the Cold War, American politicians have periodically suggested that Russia’s days as a true global power are numbered. In 2014, John McCain, a Republican senator from Arizona, called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country.” That same year, U.S. President Barack Obama dismissed Russia as a mere “regional power.” Not long thereafter, Russia successfully intervened in the Syrian war, interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and inserted itself into the political crisis in Venezuela and the civil war in Libya. And yet, the perception of Russia as a paper tiger persists.
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WNU Editor: The above authors focus a lot of their attention on Russia as a military threat to the West. I see it differently. There is zero sentiment in Russia to go to war against the West.
And as for the current border frictions and conflicts, they reside in regions and territories that hold large Russian populations who feel under threat (rightly or wrongly) in places like Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and parts of the Baltics. I do not see that changing anytime soon.
And as for the rest.
The above authors over estimate support in Russia for that country's involvement in Syria and Africa. The feedback that I am getting from everyone I know in Russia is the opposite. Most people in Russia are more focused on improving their economic situation, and making sure the borders are safe.
But the above analysis is correct that Russia is far from being in decline. In fact I see a very strong spiritual and cultural revival in the country.
And as for the economy. The West has always underestimated Russia. And they are doing it again.
