General view of the site of a bombing at a shopping center as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 21, 2022. REUTERS/Marko Djuricá
Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: When Will the War End?
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its second month, distraught members of the public are bound to ask: “when will the war end?”
The honest answer is nobody knows.
The actual war in Ukraine may last for months or years; the greater Cold War II of which it is the first skirmish will likely continue for decades, even beyond the lifetime of those reading these words. And it is likely to become more brutal.
The heartrending scenes of combat and siege, as with Mariupol, repeat what history endlessly teaches: as combat drags on everyone’s behavior gets uglier, the dispatches from the front less truthful, the choices more cruel as people in their multitudes struggle to survive if only for one minute more. The last shreds of peactime civility cease to moderate behavior and civilization enters a dark hole, from which we hope — but only hope — to God to emerge from someday.
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WNU Editor: First things first. We are now in Cold War II. Expect an arms build-up and all the risks that it will entail. This alone is going to last a decade and/or when Russian President Putin is no longer on the scene.
As to when will the Russia - Ukraine war end?
I do not have a good feeling on this war. The second Chechen war lasted almost a year, and the insurgency lasted another 9 years in a conflict that killed thousands and resulted the destruction of every major city and town in Chechnya.
Is it possible that the Russia - Ukraine war will last just as long, and be just as destructive?
My gut tells me yes.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has already vowed to never surrender, even if it involves the destruction of his country.
Russian President Putin is saying the same thing. From his point of view this war is necessary because he sees the current framework as an existential national security threat to Russia. With this mindset I do not see Putin putting a stop to his invasion.
With no common ground to negotiate and compromise, and if both Zelensky and Putin continue to stay in power, this war can easily grind on for two or three years. The country will end-up fractured like Yugoslavia, and there will be an insurgency in the western part of the country that can go on for years.
But before that happens we are going to see multiple Mariupol urban warfare scenarios that will result in the destruction of every major Ukrainian town and city. Casualties will be in the hundreds of thousands, half of the population will be displaced (if not more), and Europe will face a minimum of ten million refugees.
The global consequences of this war also cannot be underestimated. Both Russia and Ukraine provide food and agricultural products that feed hundreds of millions of people. This loss of food will result in hunger and the possibility of famine in food dependent countries.
Russia is also a major supplier of metals and energy. The economic impact of this loss have yet to be estimated.
There is also this horrible possibility. The longer this war continues the greater the chance of it spreading into neighboring countries and all the risks that a NATO - Russian war will entail. A war that will certainly involve nuclear weapons and an outcome that will leave future generations bitter and angry for decades.