Traders watch the price of X Financial, a Chinese technology personal finance company, following the company's IPO on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., September 19, 2018. Brendan McDermid/Reuters © Brendan McDermid/Reuters
CNN: There’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns
New York CNN Business — Warning lights are flashing in the global economy as high inflation, drastic rate hikes and the war in Ukraine take their toll.
There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.
The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
“This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.
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Update: There's now a 98% chance of a global recession - which signals a severe downturn and more downside risk for stocks, research group says (Markets Insider)
WNU Editor: The Ned Davis Research firm is not the only one predicting a global recession .... World Bank Warns For Global Recession In 2023 Amid Economic Slowdown, Here's What We Know So Far.
As to what is my take/prediction/worry. Most countries are now in a recession. My biggest fear is that if credit markets crash, as was the case in the UK today (link here), and interest rates continue to rise coupled with an ongoing energy crisis in Europe, most countries will be in a technical depression by the spring of 2023.