“It is treason”, Putin’s speech. pic.twitter.com/ypzXsPa4fI
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 24, 2023
WNU Editor: Busy since early this morning talking to friends, family, and contacts in Russia. The sentiment has been this (quoting one commentator) .... One thing is certain, everybody understands that it’s an internal power struggle no one is afraid of soldiers from either side … formally the same side.
Russian military blogs that I follow are saying this .... Prigozhin outlawed himself and PMCs Wagner. It's a pity, they are patriots and good soldiers.
The latest news that I have heard (which was 10 minutes ago) is that the Wagner convoy that was on its way to Moscow has stopped and they have not moved in the past few hours. Apparently a deal is being brokered.
I am skeptical of these reports. I think the commanders involved in this revolt have been given the choice of unconditional surrender or destruction, and have stopped to ponder their options. It is now evening where they are located, and I suspect they have until tomorrow morning to make a decision.
Wagner founder Prigozhyn's latest audio message is unfortunately escalating the crisis (see tweet below).
“(Putin) is deeply wrong” … Prigozhyn’s latest audio message.
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 24, 2023
-> He escalates … pic.twitter.com/xLQXdjEPKc
My prediction.
There is no support in Russia for what the Wagner Group is doing. There is certainly no support coming from any Russian military unit. Russian social media is also overwhelming against what the Wagner Group is doing. That is why I believe in the next 24 hours, seeing no support from the public and zero support from any Russian military unit, this Wagner group unit is going to surrender.
As for Wagner Group founder Prigozhyn. Needless to say. His future is grim. Treason is a capital offense in Russia.
Some personal thoughts.
There are many in Russia deeply frustrated by what they see is a "kid's glove" approach towards this conflict by the Kremlin. There are hardliners, including members of my own family, who want to do the same thing that the US did in the second Iraq war. Use heavy bombers and missiles to destroy all communication/electrical/transport/and all other critical infrastructure(s) in Ukraine. That means no power plants, no bridges, no communication towers, no rail hubs, and all critical Ukrainian government buildings in Kyiv and elsewhere left smouldering. Some of these hardliners are also pushing the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons to end the war quickly.
For now, the hardliners have little if any say in the operational plans and actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. But if they should gain a voice at the table, and if some of Prigozhyn demands and conditions are met, expect a massive escalation in the war in Ukraine.
I shudder at the military and civilian death toll that will then result if these people gain any power. I also know these hardliners are not going to stop until the Russian army is at the borders of Poland/Hungary/and Romania. The Western press may applaud what some elements of the Wagner Group are doing, but it is these same people who will cause even more destruction in Ukraine if they win out over Putin in this power struggle.
For now I give this rebel group zero chance of succeeding. But they are a sign that the sentiment in Russia to escalate the war is growing.