Anyway, at some point after Trump made his statement, he was interviewed about his wording because, at face value, it sounded like he was accusing the Mexican government of intentionally looking for ways to ship rapists and drug dealers into the US as some kind of international sabotage for... whatever. Of course he must have been just sloppy with his wording, right?
Here's the thing about Donald J. Trump, though. He can never admit error of any kind. He can't admit that he was just sloppy or careless with his wording. He couldn't bring himself to say, "that's not what I meant. You're parsing my words too closely. I simply meant that the people crossing the border are …" No, none of that for Donald J. Trump. That's too close to an admission of error. No, when confronted, he doubled down, as he always does. Really, the Mexican government intentionally goes around looking for rapists, murderers and the like, and instead of locking them up, they round 'em up, and send 'em across the Rio Grande, 'cuz that makes sense.
Otherwise, Donald J. Trump would have to admit that he was talking out of his ass.
What follows from such blather is the notion that Mexico could, in principle, just cut off all illegal immigration into the US, at will. After all, it's their doing, right? "they're sending..." He had to double down on that, in order to avoid admission of error.
And that leads us to a threat of tariffs, imposed on all Mexican goods imported into the US if the Mexican government doesn't stop the flow of illegal immigration.
Or not. Apparently, that's not happening. Trump faced several pressures not to go through with it. Revolt from within the GOP, weakening jobs numbers, and assuredly what few professionals he allows in his presence telling him how stupid it would be to put more pressure on the only thing he has going for him-- the economy-- when the economy might falter. Then again, he has gone through with other tariffs.
What is interesting here, though, is that Mexico did give him a few concessions. Minor concessions, but concessions nonetheless. They'll put a few thousand soldiers on their southern border to try to keep central American refugees limited, they're agreeing to have asylum seekers wait in Mexico, and there's some other little stuff, but is any of this fundamentally going to change the rate of illegal immigration? No. There was never a chance of that, and really, the point was always for Trump to posture and declare victory by using threats to get what he perceives to be an enemy to back down in humiliation. That's just Trump, being Trump. He is a professional wrestling heel, nothing more.
Here's the question, then. The degree to which he is successful depends on the degree to which coverage allows him to claim victory. See: NAFTA. He got a few very minor concessions on blessing the cheese-makers, but that's not meant to be taken literally, it's meant to refer to the manufacturers of all dairy products, and then he renamed it. I suppose we should be grateful that he didn't find a way to turn his own initials into a working acronym. As usual, Nancy Pelosi was right on the money, calling the current plan, "the trade agreement formerly known as Prince."
Within North America, then, Trump has a modus operandi. Make big threats, get very minor concessions, and try to declare victory amid mockery, constrained in his ability to declare victory by the efficacy of that mockery.
What has he gotten from China? If I had to guess, spyware on his unsecured cell phone, like the infuriatingly hypocritical dipshit he is. Other than that? Um... the idea of being declared "president for life?" Uh... still drawin' a blank here. Yeah, Trump's getting about as much from China for his tariffs as Lindsey Graham used to get from the GOP for pretending to have integrity. That's just not how things work. The difference is that Lindsey Graham figured out how the game was played, and handed his leash to Trump when McCain bit the big one. That's called, "learning." What happens when the dog is smarter than the master?
Anyway, China is absolutely playing this the right way, given their domestic and international situation. Giving Trump anything would be beyond stupid. Mexico really is more susceptible to Trumpian threats than China, though. They are more dependent on the US for trade. This brings us back to some issues I covered in an August, 2016 series based on Thomas Schelling: "Political Science & Craziness." Being crazy, or rather, being perceived as crazy, means you can demand things that no sane actor can demand because you can use threats that hurt yourself. The problem comes if you actually are nuts, and can't figure out when your demand is for something the other actor can't provide. So, you lock yourself into a threat that will wind up hurting yourself.
Like, you demand that Mexico cut off the flow of immigration because you're too stupid to understand that it isn't the government "sending" people, and threaten to impose tariffs that hurt your own economy if Mexico doesn't do it, while also being too stupid to understand that tariffs a) are a tax on your own people rather than the Mexican government, and b) that they therefore hurt your own economy. However stupid you think Trump is, you have yet to plumb the depths of his idiocy. Trump is a "fucking moron" (source: Tillerson, Rex), and what philosopher Harry Frankfurt calls a "bullshitter." Does he understand that the Mexican government isn't "sending" illegal immigrants? Does he care? This is all difficult to parse with someone who is a) stupid, and b) doesn't care about truth. However, being what he is, Trump used a self-destructive threat to demand that Mexico do something to stem the flow of illegal immigration. That, they cannot really do because despite Trump's "they're sending" nonsense, that's not how illegal immigration works.
So, one of our most important trading partners was trapped into making some small, symbolic concessions to appease the person who was trapped by his own rhetoric into making threats that were self-destructive in order to achieve concessions that could not possibly be achieved.
China? They don't have to put up with this. The biggest problem, though, is that even symbolic concessions reinforce Trump's belief that threatening tariffs is the way to handle everything, even though he got, shall we say, less than market value.
I wonder what tariffs he'll threaten next. There's an aphorism in the business world. The business world craves stability and certainty. Nobody in modern American politics has ever been more destabilizing to the business world than Donald J. Trump. So, either that aphorism is bullshit, or they'll abandon him.
Gee... I wonder...
Links to "Political Science and Craziness"
