In yesterday's post, I addressed why Nancy Pelosi is likely to become Speaker again, and those in the Democratic caucus making noises about not supporting her are either just making noise or have intellectual deficiencies. Democrats are the party of political correctness, and I'm not supposed to use the "r" word, but...
Anyway, let's talk about the party of riding the short bus. The "R" Party. Paul Ryan is stepping down as Speaker, and while Kevin McCarthy would very much like to replace him as party leader if not Speaker, we've been here before. Story time.
When John Boehner was Speaker, I wrote a conference paper for what would eventually become a chapter in the book I referenced in yesterday's post, Incremental Polarization. I pointed out that I didn't think his Speakership could be stable. This was during Obama's Presidency, and the nutjobs in the Republican Party kept insisting on shutdown showdowns and debt ceiling fights. That created a dynamic in which Boehner was forced to seek votes from the Democrats to prevent disasters, and that made his Speakership unstable. Boehner was then forced to resign by the Freedom Caucus. I wrote a couple of posts about this for The Monkey Cage, and in the editorial process, something interesting happened. I put in some cautionary words about how we shouldn't assume that McCarthy was going to be the next Speaker, even though he had announced his candidacy, and a bunch of people presumed he would get the job. After all, the Freedom Caucus could sink him. Those cautionary words were... taken out in the editorial process. McCarthy then went into a conference meeting for the pre-vote, which was the informal caucus vote to make sure that the GOP's guy had enough to get a full majority of the House (you need a majority to become Speaker, not just a plurality), and the Freedom Caucus wackos told him to eat shit and die. (No comma, for fans of Eats, Shoots & Leaves). Once McCarthy was out of the contest, the GOP had to look around for anyone who could get the votes. The only one who could get a sufficient number of votes was an innumerate con man who plays the role of a budgetary deficit hawk to credulous audiences across the country. You know him as Paul Ryan. He has had a much easier time as Speaker than Boehner because during that last year of Obama's Presidency, he didn't have to raise the debt ceiling. Boehner did it for him first. Little Paulie was too scared to do the job. He needed a real Congressman to do the job for him. And then Paulie didn't have to deal with divided government. He just passed a tax cut. And now he's getting out while the gettin's good. He's a con man, but he's not the dumbest con man around. That'd be Donny.
Anywho, there are some important lessons here. First, don't assume it's McCarthy. (In other words, pay attention to those jackasses in the Freedom Caucus.) Second, pay attention to the unified/divided government issue, and the majority/minority status issue. Third, pay attention to the desirability of the job.
McCarthy is a weaselly, little guy with no real political knowledge or skill except sidling. He's the guy from that Seinfeld episode. The "sidler." He sidles up to whoever did the work, stands next to them while they hand the product over to the boss, and tries to take the credit after doing nothing. It's gotten him up to the Number 2 slot, but he isn't even.... "the new Number 2!" (Hey! A Prisoner reference!) He's been there, trying to become Number 1, but he can't because he doesn't get that, like Eats, Shoots & Leaves, "Number 1" is a comma issue. "Who is Number 1? You are, Number 6!" Those commas will get you every time. Anyway, McCarthy's problem with the Freedom Caucus is that he is just so obviously a phony. He tries to drag his knuckles on the ground, and they can see that he's wearing gloves to protect his precious, dainty, little hands. He tries to breathe through his mouth, and they can hear sound whistling through his nose. So, eventually, some Freedom Caucus member will pick up a femur from the ground and start trying to bash in McCarthy's skull with it while doing chimp yells. (See, DeSantis, it's not racist 'cuz they're all white. Kubrick, you philistines. Kubrick.)
Next, the divided government issue. This is rather brief. Nothing will happen, so the stakes are low. More importantly, though, the GOP is the minority party in this particular divided government split. The majority party in the House controls the agenda. They select committee chairs, determine which bills get consideration, who gets to offer amendments, and so forth. The minority party is procedurally irrelevant. They have almost no power. So, it almost doesn't matter who their leader is. Their leader has some authority over their committee assignments, but even those are relatively meaningless because minority party members have little influence within committee, and the House won't be passing any legislation anyway. It will be the job of the Minority Leader to hold the party together in opposition to whatever bills Nancy Pelosi brings to the floor, but... that'll be easy. Frankly, the harder part will be convincing them not to mail pipe bombs to Pelosi. Really, though, whether it's McCarthy, or someone else, the job doesn't have much in the way of formal responsibilities.
Following from that... who cares? Is there really a difference between Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Leader Jim Jordan? Or Minority Leader Greg Gianforte, Steve King, Louis Gohmert, or whoever? In terms of outcomes? No. Pelosi will run roughshod over the GOP no matter whom they pick because that's how the House works. There just isn't much at stake here.
There's a little. When the GOP retakes the House, whoever is at the top is in a good position to be the next Speaker. It doesn't necessarily work that way, but that's part of it. There's also a question for the party of who they want in a visible position. That child molestation enabler, Jim Jordan, may not be who the GOP wants as the face of the House GOP, but then again, they're totally cool with an out-and-proud rapist like Trump as the leader of their national cult, so hey. Why not? For the most part, though, this is a pointless fight.
So, what happens? Jim Jordan probably doesn't get the job. Too many people in the caucus hate him. Steve Scalise? Also known as "David Duke without the baggage?" If the Freedom Caucus decides, once again, that they won't have McCarthy, Scalise would be their obvious choice, with his racism being a big part of the appeal. Does McCarthy get the job? I truly don't know. The big question is, why would the Freedom Caucus be more amenable to him now than in 2015? They may decide that it doesn't matter because the GOP is in the minority, so let the weasel have the job, and fight the bad fight later. That's the problem here. This is such a petty, stupid fight that there is no way to predict how people will behave when there is truly nothing at stake.
Pelosi will run everything. Whether it's McCarthy or Scalise, or hell, Gohmert, that job's a dummy prize. I don't understand why anyone would want it anyway.
Besides, have you seen John Boehner lately? The happiest day of his life was the day after he left those assholes in the House GOP. And he was good at the job. Why would a useless fuckwit want the job when it's just pointless stress? I may study politics, but that doesn't mean I understand politics.
Anyway, remember that I'm shifting to weekend blogging, so I'll put up some blues tomorrow, some un-American music to get HUAC on my ass on Tuesday, and while I might put up some brief comments throughout the week, longer posts will return next weekend. I might start putting up more music mid-week just for the hell of it, though.
Related Posts :
Midterm election mythology: Age and presidential versus midterm elections- A bird's eye view of the 2018 House landscape
- The stakes of the 2018 election, Part VI: The concept of truth
- The difficulty of estimating the effects of "voter suppression" techniques
Tuesday music: If you only listen to American music, you just suck